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To: abuelita who wrote (1430)	7/4/2002 12:37:30 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

SEAbridge may soon act like a failing option call play it is extremely highly leveraged to gold metal prices which are dicking around aimlessly here in #310-315 range I expect sub #310 to come if no July4th attacks occur share prices have support at C$2.40 but we have a failed doubletop, just like with HUI index it closed at C$2.58 on Wedday close now to that support level seen in mid-June usually failed doubletops dont support where they did last they seek out a lower level of support with any even minor retreat in gold price, C$2.40 wont hold with any continued USdollar consolidation here, gold will at best level off that will not help gold miner stocks leveling behavior will chip away nuggets in gold shares the XAU and HUI indexes are showing breakdown I expect C$2.40 to break down also today, Canadians are buying at the ask, but teeny volumes next support level is much lower, at C$1.60-1.80 this is the most likely support I see coming in the next 2-4 weeks if gold retreats to touch #300, then C$1.60 is certain in my view if gold retreats even very temporarily with 2-3 straight closes under #300, I see gold miner capitulation coming with that will come support at C$1.00 gold miners are suffering from broken psychology sure, the dollar has careened down but a gradual US$ decline would benefit gold more now we have a strong potential for CBanker action succeeding that is precisely the sideways consolidating action that disrupts gold momentum I dont delve into stochastics or relative strenk only simple broken double top, now seeking support confirmation is coming from the indexes actually, I think the indexes are painting a scarey picture one where shorting golds can make 20-25% quickly I find silver stocks even more extremely vulnerable we have a strange world now with two indexes XAU is showing a concluding Head & Shoulder bear pattern the neckline was a flat line at 95 the target is mid-60's it is 71.5 now the newer HUI is showing a failed doubletop with broken uptrend support the next levels of support are 110, 100, 90 it is 123 now Rosey ODonnell is on "League of Their Own" now with Geena Davis the baseball movie with women during WW2 I thought of you, so this is pure physick seriously, the golds are now gonna struggle to find support the mounting fundamental evidence of deflation only serves to undermine the golds, RIGHT NOW but all manner of undercurrent declining dollar inflationary effects are working together with powerful monetary expansion inflationary forces to combine in a way not seen in 30 years such forces cannot remain subdued which is great great for gold and miners I think price inflation will win big but the evidence must show up to launch gold and gold miners China and Asia will likely enter into a depression next year this is more supply line deflationary winds $2.40 $1.60 (my best guess and expectoration) $1.00 I hope this makes sense to you / jim p.s. do you still love me?

To: abuelita who wrote (1430)	7/4/2002 1:12:54 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

article: Gold Market Update, time for reflection/ correction by Joe Foster gold-eagle.com a conclusion excerpt: As mentioned in our last update, the gold market was in need of a cooling off period. Valuations on gold shares had risen to high levels in a relatively short period. Valuation measures, such price/cash flow and price/NAV, were approaching levels last seen at the peak of the market in 1996. The highs reached in 1996 were at the tail end of a three-year bull market, whereas the current bull market is only 15 months young. The sector has attracted more fresh equity in the past year than in the prior four years combined. Perhaps the summer months will be a good time to relax by the pool, forget the frenzied pace, and recharge some batteries. Finally, the U.S. dollar and gold have moved in the same downward direction in June for the first time this year. This is a break from the normal inverse movement. The dollar first began to decline in January, falling along a gentle slope until mid June, when it began to fall precipitously. These movements suggest that the dollar has been oversold and that the decline in the June gold price presages a summer correction in the dollar. Ultimately, the still-growing current account deficit, along with the decline in foreign investment in the U.S., indicate that the dollar has not yet reached a bottom. / jim