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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (20752)	7/4/2002 3:22:38 PM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<<The Speculator: The market's shaken, rattled and ready to roll>> It is possible but only by doing swap trades and hoping there is still enough people fearing to miss the "rally". On the other hand many of the pension funds just waiting for the opportunity to cash the assets as they will be facing tough questions soon from the participants.

To: Mark Adams who wrote (20752)	7/4/2002 3:32:50 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mark, Yes, I've seen other folks as well that have been touting the VIX lately. There are some very mixed signs, signals, indicators, whatever we want to call them, that are out there right now. Adamant bulls have their bullish readings, while steadfast bears have a different set of readings. And, as usual, the bulls and the bears see the market as heading in opposite directions. <g> My own take on the VIX is completely compatible with what other folks on this thread have thought for some time now. That is, that there will be a short term rally, possibly quite substantial, after which the averages will plummet to new lows, as earnings simply will not keep pace with bloated expectations. I see two imminent dangers myself. The first one is the under-funded pension situation, where old-line companies with fixed pension plans have a set of assumptions for investment returns that are simply too optimistic (around 9%, give or take, when even 6% may prove to be unattainable). The second problem, and one that will become more obvious quite soon, is that the new S&P reports that will take into account employee stock options, will hit the streets very shortly. I fear that many investors are not going to like what they see, especially with their beloved tech and biotech stocks. Accounting for employee stock options could conceivably slash as much as 50% off of the reported earnings for some companies, where earnings are currently very meager. KJC