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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (3503)	7/5/2002 1:12:56 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Kerry, I'm not so sure that parking dough in cash for a prolonged time is wise. If we start heading for a "inflationary environment" cash is a looser as its purchacing power gets erroded. On the other hand its the safe haven for when the fed notches up rates. while I'm long cash, a selection of cyclicals and equities that provide absolute returns (REIT's have and continue to do well....acting a bit like bonds) are appropiate based on historic market behavior. Bear or sideways market stocks exist in the universe of equities that will do well. Additionally the vix has proven to be useful barometer with regard to trading and timing. Certianly buyings and holding indexed funds (which worked so well for Joe Public in the 90's) ain't going to have a repeate performance anytime soon. mad2

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (3503)	7/10/2002 12:17:54 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

I still greatly fear panic-selling, even though it now looks more and more like there exists counter-forces to panic-selling that might prevent that from happening. We'll see, I guess. However, the bottom line is that cash is currently king, and looks like it will remain so for the coming years I think your going to be proven to be correct, uneasy feeling about the market. many elements pointing to continued trend downward. main on thought is valuations (and buy side analyst assumptions) still too rosey. need some value oriented bargan hunters to get this thing turned around. Of course volatility and short term opportunities will exist, but it isn't the time to dump money in with the assumption it'll grow.....bulls dead for a while. mad2