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To: AllansAlias who wrote (44522)	7/4/2002 6:54:25 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

>>If the market rallies here, it won't catch any of the experienced shorters<< I noticed that among the more ‘conservative shorting’ circles (there are such!) the talk is about keeping – and tightening – stops to protect the profits. FWIW, there is fuel there.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (44522)	7/4/2002 11:50:32 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

yo, Dude!! I'll do what I can to support the price of LEH, FNM, KO, the homebuilders and a few others. <vbg> But I'll need a little help from my friends. Seriously, not 150% short here -- who wants to be the cause of the next monster bear rally?? Not me ...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (44522)	7/5/2002 9:24:42 AM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

Allan -- <<If the market rallies here, it won't catch any of the experienced shorters. It was tooearly who got me wondering about this.>> This is the point I've been making for the past couple weeks, also. When you've been accusing me of being bearish, this has largely been why: the bears I read have been talking about a bottom, but none would really profit from it, other than to go long. And this despite the fact that so many cycles had been pinpointed around here. It was as if there was disbelief that the market could go down when it made sense to go down from cycles, charts, etc. Admittedly, upon looking at the futures this morning, this is exactly why folks have been standing aside: the snapback. That said, there's been a lot of standing aside for the last 200 naz points or so since "you can't add shorts here." Again, though, while this sentiment kept me somewhat bearish, it's not the type of sentiment that makes bottoms or tops or anything. Just an interesting divergence. The past week or so wasn't a great bottom by any stretch, though there were at least a couple things that make it as good as February's bottom. Max pain is up there, too. Miss two months in a row? MSFT earnings coming up soon. I wonder if they'll have any impact. They did in 2001 in the summer. Run to max pain the fall on Softie? Heck, anything can happen. the freep

To: AllansAlias who wrote (44522)	7/5/2002 9:38:52 AM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 209892

Without shorts, prices are free to fall. To get good down you have to have people booked below to buy. This week they finally switched to being booked above to sell. In other words, if it gets cheaper I don't want to buy. One trader IMed me the other day that they were being driven crazy by all the low price alerts they'd put in earlier going off. I responded, "But you don't want to buy down here, do you?" To which they responded, "Hell no." hehehehhehe....what defines "low"? When nobody, not even the shorts and swing traders want to buy. To get a rally you have to have the supply above or stated another way, to get good down you have to have demand below as in short covering and bargain hunters, supply below as in stop loss orders, low price capitulation and most importantly profit to protect (as in the gold producers). That brings me to what is booked below right now, gold producers have been for months and I imagine anything that has good profit over the last year like the homies and small caps. People are now buying the downside distribution just like they bought the downside distribution on the tech stocks for almost two years. The book acts like a magnet for price.