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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (20780)	7/5/2002 1:36:19 PM
From: Muthusamy SELVARAJU	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

DJ, It is Friday evening in Geneva, and I've been here from KL since Wed., so jet lag is obviously having an effect on me, at my age. BUT, this morning, a fellow called Hugh Hendry of I'm Irish extraction, a Europe-based fund manager, had a full 2 hours on CNBC Europe. He brought out many of the anti-Gold consipiracy theories, the impending crash of the insurance and bank companies in the world, due to the stock market crash worldwide, and the uselessness long term of fiat currencies. He was even brazen enough to name a few banks of being scandal-tainted, which shocked me, in the current legal climate. At the end of the 2 hours, I was left unconvinced that he or any other ordinary citizen could make a difference to the recent trend of lower gold prices, along with all other precious metals, at least in the short term. I told myself: - he did not seem convinced of his case himself, as he came across as 'let us not believe anything that is out there, gold is the only long term value' - I think central banks are too big a guerilla factor in this, so individual investors can't go against their constant, persistent intervention - the only factor that could put gold back up in the 330 level and above is either another Japan 'factor' (which is going to take a long time), a major terrorist attack bigger than Sept 11 (inconceivable, imho), or a mega accounting crookedness at a company not smaller than GE (again, imho, unlikely). It leaves me thinking gold is heading to sub-300 again...which is what my Swiss private bankers told me (even if they are working for the Geneva branch of a German bank). In fact, they told me I am the ONLY individual to have gold content in my portfolio, (along with emerging markets bonds, which they define as downright loony) as almost all of them are holding solely ST money-market instruments, earning max. 3%. By the way, there does not seem to be any crisis mindset among any of the people I've talked to in the last 40 odd hours....they're all convinced I'm crazy, but this is not new, as they knew that many years ago :( What do people think? Selva