To: David Alon who wrote (3649 ) 7/5/2002 9:49:31 AM From: David Alon Respond to of 11633 Crude Oil Steady, May Rise on Report of Iraq Invasion Plans By Thomas Tugendhat London, July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed near a six-week high after the New York Times published plans for a U.S. attack on Iraq. Prices may rise when the New York market opens on Monday, traders said. An assault to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein may disrupt shipments from the Middle East, which pumps a third of the world's oil, boosting prices, traders said. Prices doubled to $40 a barrel after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, falling back to $20 by January 1991. ``Any escalation would lead to a spike in the oil price,'' said Doug Leggate, an oil analyst at Commerzbank Securities. ``During the Gulf War the oil price spiked but came down quickly.'' Brent crude oil for August settlement was recently down 3 cents at $25.52 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange in London. Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, has risen 29 percent this year as OPEC cut output quotas to their lowest since 1991. The New York Mercantile Exchange was closed yesterday and today for U.S. Independence Day holiday. ``We have to wait and see what New York's reaction will be on Monday,'' said Mohammed Sheikh-Kadir, a trader at Rhein Oel Ltd., a unit of RWE AG, Europe's fourth-biggest power company. The New York Times reported details of planned incursions into Iraq by U.S. air, sea and ground forces. U.S. President George W. Bush has threatened military action against Iraq since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The shooting of two people at an El Al airlines counter yesterday meanwhile stoked concern of Israeli retaliation. OPEC Capacity Disruption to oil supply from Iraq might be balanced elsewhere, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has more than 5.7 million barrels a day of spare capacity, according to Bloomberg estimates. Iraq produced about 1.6 million barrels daily last month. A gunman opened fire at the El Al counter in Los Angeles International Airport at about 11:35 a.m. local time yesterday and was shot dead by airline security guards, Los Angeles Police Department spokesman Jason Lee said. The attacker was Hesam Mohamed Hadayet, an Egyptian living in Irvine, California, CNN and the British Broadcasting Corp. said. He carried out the shooting on his 41st birthday, the BBC said, citing unidentified officials. Hadayet, who arrived in the U.S. in 1992, was identified from a thumbprint through driver's license records, the BBC said. Airport Attack The Israeli consul general in Los Angeles, Yuval Rotem, said at a news conference that the attack seemed to be the work of terrorists because it resembled previous attacks on El Al counters at European airports. The Federal Bureau of Investigation said it didn't believe the attack stemmed from organized terrorism. ``We have no reason to believe this is an act of terrorism,'' said Ron Iden, assistant director of the FBI's Los Angeles office, in a televised news conference. ``The subject's motive is unknown.'' Violence between Israelis and Palestinians has added $2 to $3 a barrel to the price of oil this year, as traders are concerned that a widening conflict could disrupt Middle East supply, analysts said. My own comment, Does the FBI really believe this was not a terrorist attack? How often to people celebrate their birthday by going to an ElAl checkout and shoot them?