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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (91576)	7/5/2002 11:53:11 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi JRI, I think this recession will be exactly what it was intended to be - a soft landing. What we don't hear and we should be hearing is Greenspan has engineered exactly what he wanted. We've taken out the excesses without the huge costs of recessions - emplyment subsidies ,training plans and all the saftynet expenses. While most people right away jump to the dark side and say we're going into the abyss - I just don't see it. 94% of every one is still working - their purchases are pent up and controlled.Most still have good to great income and can afford to take advantage of a deal when they see one.That really is what I'm seeing. Now I'm in the retail sector and that has held.Manufacturing has been in the tank - but it appears that high frequency economic statistics are showing a bottom is in and sequential slow growth is month to month building. Long slow growth after the bubble was deflated.Bush has been given everything he wanted due to terrorism.That accomplishment would never have happened.But we have electronic,military funding going on under the guise of homeland defense.In between the excesses in telco,networks, and PC tech reinvent themselves which takes time - but it has been 2 years this October that the semi equip hit their lows October 2000 -this is July 2002 new manufacturing techniques do evolve every 2-3 years.This is the beginning of a subtle nonrobust almost stealth growth economy. Exactly what was desired.It was ordered and now its being served.The bears are saying we're going to zero 1932 style.The bulls are saying -I sure miss my dreams of early retirement. Those with great products,marketed aggressively can make a good living.Times are good and getting better! We've just been slapped back into the belief that conservative investing is a long term game plan.Don't give up your day job and don't give up common sense. Most importantly don't give up long term investing when equities are at their best value. So work hard - don't spend everything you earn and invest in real companies,with real products,with real margins,and no debt. Over time we will become wealthy with this approach. Thats been and will continue to be my work ethic and investment philosophy. I'm not giving up my day time job.gg Bob