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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (15231)	7/5/2002 5:33:45 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 36161

>>the oilpatch has been dead money since June 2001<< Once again, I'm looking at much longer time periods than you. Go back to 1998, when oil prices were ridiculously low, and look how the prices have increased and pretty well stabilized around $25-$27 now. I don't look for what AVERAGE companies will do in this market but for what superior ones will do. As I said, if a company like Unocal boosts sales by 10 to 15 percent this year (quite likely, given the increase in demand in many of its SE Asia markets and in the U.S.), that's not too bad, particularly with crude and natural gas prices where they are. And then there's that patent litigation--kind of like a wild card that could pay handsomely, about $500 million for past transgressions alone. There's another kicker here too. The current anti-conservation mood of the administration virtually assures that demand for oil and gas will continue strong in the U.S. A more conservation minded administration could really put a damper on producer profits. I wouldn't worry about that in the near future. Art