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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (51886)	7/6/2002 1:27:50 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: general questions 1. "unbalance of payments of the U.S." Not only is this outside the GG, but it is also largely irrelevant, IMO. The Gorillas are global companies. Their fortunes are not tied to the fortunes of any currency (or any country, really). They do their sales, get their profits, get their components, do their assembly and code-writing, literally everywhere. There are tried-and-true ways, used by all these companies, to hedge the risk of currency fluctuations. Assuming the stock performance will mirror the company's performance (LT, that is), we can safely ignore balance-of-payments/currency risk. As a citizen I am worried, but not as an investor. 2. at market bottoms, investors won't buy bargains, because they are waiting for extraordinary bargains. Just as, at market tops, investors refuse to Sell High, as they expect Higher to happen. Are we at The Bottom now? I don't know that, but I do know we are, today, closer to The Bottom than we've been in the last 5 years. It makes more sense to be a GGer today (and to focus decision-making on those principles), than at any time since the book came out. It makes sense, precisely because the ideas are now in disfavor, and the True Believers are wavering. When else do Good Prices happen? 3. I've made numerous posts, over the last 2+ years, worrying about debt (consumer, corporate, government). But, in the last few months, I've decided the danger is waning, at least for consumers. The economy bottomed last year. In recessions, unemployment peaks 2-4 quarters after the economy troughs. That means unemployment isn't going much higher than it is now. Consumers get into trouble with debt loads, in proportion to the unemployment level. My point is, if consumer debt levels were going to become a problem (causing an abrupt contraction in consumer spending), then it would have already happened by now. 4. What, exactly, do you mean by, "If SEBL was primarily a European company"? Do you mean, that if they moved their corporate headquarters to Denmark (and changed nothing else), that would make them a better investment? Or is the needed change, that EPS and stock price need to be denominated in Euros (or would you prefer Yen, or Yuan?). Or do you think the SEC has been AsleepAtTheWheel, and you want another government's regulators to be the referee of the Accounting Game?