Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3858)	7/5/2002 7:15:05 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95531

For reference purposes, following is the "Weekly Wrap" from Briefing.com. <<Weekly Wrap : Thanks to today's spectacular advance, the major market indices managed to close the roller coaster week mixed... The DJIA's 324 point, 3.6%, advance was its biggest this year, with every component but Coca-Cola (KO 56.47 -0.14) closing with a gain... Biggest gains were recorded by tech and financial components, especially Intel (INTC 19.54 +10.1%), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 16.30 +7.1%), Citigroup (C 39.55 +6.9%) and JP Morgan (JPM 32.59 +5.3%)... Intel up big ahead of new chip rollout next week... GE (29.69 +6.4%), AT&T (T 10.19 +5.9%) and United Tech (UTX 69.25 +6.8%) were also big winners. One factor behind today's big, broadbased gain was the lack of terrorism over the holiday... Threat of such had weighed on the market early in the week, and when the holiday passed with no fireworks - other than those intended - shorts covered and traders did some light bargain hunting... A couple positive comments on the volatile, but influential, semiconductor industry by the brokerage community also underpinned the indices... The SOX rallied 9.1%, or 32.97 points to close at 396.18... This after the index set a new 52-wk low of 343.72 on July 3rd. Thin trading conditions due to holiday shortened trading helped exaggerate today's advance... Will be interesting to see if indices can sustain any upward momentum next week... Recent big, one-day moves have been followed quickly by renewed selling... Helping to set the tone will be earnings from Yahoo! (YHOO), Genentech (DNA), Tenet Healthcare (THC), Juniper Networks (JNPR) and General Electric (GE)... Traders will also be focusing on the Retail Sales, Wholesale Inventories and PPI data.>> Don

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3858)	7/5/2002 7:16:14 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

Here are some additional thoughts Don. You know I have become quite fond of using the VIX as an indicator of potential moves for the SOX and by association the broader NASDAQ. During the past couple of weeks the VIX topped out twice at essentially 36. This is a high reading but no where near the 50 to 60 reading that I would like to see as a hallmark of a Bear Market bottom. Wednesday's session started out badly, as you know, with the VIX traveling over 35 a couple of times and then backing off in conjunction with the ensuing rally which carried over today. The fact that the level of fear never even matched 36 even though on Wednesday we were hitting new Bear Market lows on virtually every technology index but the Hardware Index is very bad longer term. What this means is that no matter whether this rally lasts one more hour on Monday to another couple of weeks I believe it is doomed to fail. Why? We simply have not seen enough fear or absolute capitulation. And I still say it is coming. Sure we may actually get our elusive summer rally but until October is over a lot of institutional money is very likely to stay on the sidelines. There is too much opportunity for additional bad news to take this market far below where it closed today. I am watching resistance at 405 on the SOX and the VIX for a potential reversal in the 28 range on Monday. If we get through those potential inflection points in good shape then the market could consolidate or even rise for a while awaiting earnings numbers. On the SOX 450 is not out of the question if we bust through 405 in style. I do see a lot of doji on SOX components like MU and TXN for instance though tonight. Later this month NVLS could be a key in determining where the SOX trades. They report on the 22 but I suspect they cannot give strong enough guidance to satisfy this market. So best case scenario in my mind is a strong couple of weeks and downward pressure again by the end of the month. First question on Monday is do we take out 405 on the SOX? table.finance.yahoo.com^soxx&g=d stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Uk14]&pref=G Second does fear step back in when the VIX falls into the 28 range? table.finance.yahoo.com stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9]&pref=G finance.yahoo.com I'll be watching and waiting to see what happens on Monday. RtS