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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3862)	7/5/2002 8:43:30 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95515

Gottfried, I like your post. You are saying I think what I wanted to say, but didn't have a good way to state it. We have had a long period of "fear". The market has been going down for a long time and it has just taken out this week some major past lows. Is the U.S. economy worse off now than it was in 97, 98 and 99? I think not. As you say, just how much fear can a person have. I would have a lot more fear if the economy was not doing rather well. It is not doing as well as many people would like, but it is improving on a month to month basis. The semi business has been improving for some time on a month to month basis. When the market was going down in 2000, 2001, etc, record revenues and earnings were sometimes posted by companies and the market would immediately "kill" the company the next trading day by opening 20 to 30 percent lower. I know because I got caught in one of those actions - not very pretty! But why did that happen? Well the "market" was looking out 9 to 12 months or more saying bad things were going to happen. Sure enough, the prediction came to pass. What's the difference now? I submit the market is not looking forward more than a week or two to the next near term event. The "market" is not recognizing the economic recovery that has already started and is likely to continue. By 9 to 12 months from now, semi and semi-equip revenues and profits are going to be much larger - perhaps double what they are now. Does the "market" care? Not that I can see. At some point, I think the "market" will start to look forward into the future instead of being mired in the present. JMO See what you did Gottfried? You got me on my soapbox.<gg> Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (3862)	7/5/2002 8:54:46 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95515

Gottfried my common sense tells me that although we may be numb to some of what has happened in the market these last few years we are still aware and ready to react to the unexpected event as you alluded to in your post. Today we are relieved that we did not relive September 11, 2001 over Independence Day but we have not become numb to fear. All it will take is one horribly terrifying world event. Which unfortunately will no doubt happen. Then we will see capitulation. I'm still looking over the charts you linked. I agree that 408 would seem to confirm a further rise is in the offing. Thanks, RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (3862)	7/6/2002 10:13:04 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

RtS, VIX and fear: I don't know for sure but I think the level of fear one can experience depends on how sudden the fear evoking event happens. If all is rosy one moment and suddenly sh*t happens fear can spike big time. But if you have been terrorized by bad events relentlessly for a long time, an increase in the unpleasantness may just make you hide under the table. You're just not able to fear much more than you have. There must be books about this. I read somewhere that VIX isn't good for finding a bear market bottom because what happens in a bear is people slowly capitulate and leave the market for good (or until the next big run up where they jump in near the top again as they were doing in 1999 and early 2000). This is the case for many "young" friends I have that started in the industry in the last 5 or so years. They used to use all available cash to buy stocks and they also did 401K and company purchase plans to buy stock. Now we are lucky if they are buying value funds with their 401K monies while the rest is buying new cars and homes rather than stocks. It is no surprise why the consumer has remained strong spenders as they are buying "stuff" rather than stocks with their salaries. Read the message boards now and there are more people talking about when to next short then ever before... reminds me of all the talk of what internet company to buy by all the new comers in early 2000. I think we won't know the bear is over until years after. I was almost 100% tech stocks when we crashed in 1987 and I think my portfolio took a 50% hit. It didn't really recover until 1990 or 1991 and I don't recall any cataclysmic VIX type event that told people the bull had resumed for tech stocks. In fact, we even had a small Gulf War Bear market before the longer term bull trend resumed and stocks like HWP (now HPQ) bottomed. IBM didn't bottom until 1993 at about a 75% discount from its 1980's peak. bigcharts.marketwatch.com I have heard that VIX is a good indicator for local bottoms... Kirk