Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Coming Financial Collapse Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (944)	7/6/2002 1:07:09 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 974

Some thoughts on the subject of >>seems to cycle like some of our indices<< The reason for the similarities could be the interdependence of global markets. On the other hand my technical background lights up some warning signs: after enough massaging any real data cum predictions will look pretty much the same. First, the signal followed is a deseasonized change of something. Already here at the start there's some, probably quite legitimate, tinkering with data. Second, the model is used (as any other model) to predict what should happen, given the past. So the future of the model can't look any different than the past. In real world, I dont think future already made up its mind (g). Just compare Jan and Jun graphs, they all have a (sort of) nicely fitting past, and then the prediction. With Jun in your hands, one can check, how good Jan prediction was. Looks like the jun prediction does confirm the turnaround. No sign of it though in the real GDP data - so far. RegZ dj