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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (15266)	7/6/2002 12:31:18 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Mark, I know absolutely nothing about the fertilizer business except that farmers have cut back on fertilizer usage because they are now doing analysis and only fertilizing what is necessary for maximum production. I think ADM at a PE of 20 is expensive. Right now they are trading at a PE slightly north of 17. What we do not know is what ethanol will do to the bottom line once Washington and the states decide what is going to happen with the additives. They also recently did a deal in this area. It looks to me like they are going to be number one in this business and ADM has always done an excellent job of working the politics associated with their business. Speaking of Brazil - Jimmy Rogers this morning communicated there is a potential risk that this could be a serious problem come fall. I don't think he can see in the future - he did not give any reasons why this has a high probability of a blow up. Joan