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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3874)	7/6/2002 2:42:41 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95515

Don, I watch the earnings estimates and PEGs that you post, regularly, for the SOX and the "Group". I was referring to your compiled numbers. Part of the reason for the severity of the move down is the belief that first quarter results and second quarter expectations were due to an inventory build up (after levels were allowed to fall below what is necessary to support end user consumption) and second half results will decline from the temporary "build up" levels. For the "Group", H2 '02 order levels are more important than earnings because revenues and earnings will trail H1 order expansion. For the semis (ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM), sequential revenue growth will be the key and I think these high quality, highly diversified companies should be considered "canaries in the mine shafts" for technology prospects.