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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1569)	7/7/2002 12:42:28 PM
From: SGJ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

One last blast from the talking heads about the barbarous relic? Good for nothing but digging up and sticking in the ground again? Of course what they don't say is something has to be real money! <G> I think we are getting close to the bottom of the correction on gold miners. Look for the next shock that boosts gold and kicks the dollar to come from sudden downgrades in the bond market. As a banker I can tell you downgrades happen and sometimes overnight. Everything's fine until it isn't. Few early warning systems in place in institutional debt for severe drops. Herd mentality is rampant among debt holders. False sense of security exists with credit enhancement derivatives, perceived government put on GSA's and diversity of risk question. IN this not too far fetched scenario, credit insurance will be tested in an already weakened environment for those who write/hold the other side. I think on the next leg the HUI will diverge from the XAU, unless the POG gets below $300 for a while. The chances of that are getting smaller IMO. Over the next 60 days, I think POG hovers $302-315,60% Test $330 again 20% chance. Go up over $330, 10%, break $300, 10%.