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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Trading In Our Markets. Learn, then Earn -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (960)	7/7/2002 3:49:06 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1854

HERE'S THE 30TH..WITH UPDATES BELOW THAT ... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JUNE 30TH 2002 "ARE THE BULLS BACK?" Hi everyone...what a fabulous weekend here in the East...Pools open, barbecue's on fire, come on over<G>... Well?, is this it? Is this the rally we are looking for? Do we test last weeks lows?. I can say we are still bottoming here and the P&F indicators are right where I like them...Heavily oversold and about to reverse back up...We'll watch Monday-Tues and see if we are still going back down..I'm not so sure. It was a quiet weekend. I did not like all those doji's on Friday..Many indexes ran up and into overhead R at or near the 20 ema daily...So it will take a break of those tops for me to get real bullish...We'll watch them together..On P&F those rallies looked just like Dead Cat Bounces(DCB), that look shortable..But I am waiting patiently<g>, and will let the markets tell me whats up... I can now see some light at the end of the tunnel...Many sectors BP's(Bullish Percents) are ready to reverse back up here, and 2 of our favorites the Semis & Bio Techs are very close...In fact the BBH gave a buy signal off the bottom last week...We had a reversal up on the 10 week of the NYSE..That means many stocks are trying to break above the 10 week moving averages giving buy signals...this reversal has reversed up off nice lows here at 26%..We in the Pifffers world always like to see reversals on all indicators and Bullish Percents from below 30% on the oversold side...this is very positive.. Last week the NYSE & OTC had a lot more buy signals then sell signals, albeit from very low levels...So it's just starting to improve..Look i'm not calling a bottom here because we have Macro Cycle lows coming in Oct...What this could be a is a short term bottom within this bear market..The rally will be short and shallow for now...and until Cap Ex spending comes back in earnest later this year we are still in the doldrums for now...I think it will happen later this year, and 2003-2004 will be the true recovery in the stock markets...I've already talked about this before, it remains to be seen IF it actually pans out...But I will be looking to enter many long term positions at or near the Oct/Nov lows... I liked the markets response to very bad news last week, and we could be seeing the beginning of a SENTIMENT change here...this is very important folks, because if the street starts buying bad news, then it will really reward good news, hence I have a starting list in this newsletter of stocks that have guided higher for the quarter... here they are..please double check them for all of us.. QCOM--ESST---VSEA---AMAT---MTON---EBAY---ERTS---EMLX---QLGC--BRCD....let me know if there are others, and check to see if the ones here are correct...i'll review them below... Ok Let's check a stock i really like..MO..they've killed it, battered it & murdered it<G>...stomped on it too..hehehehe...NOT saying to buy it here, because we could see 34 as the final target, but sector rotation is under way here everyone...We talked about this fabulous stock months ago, using a buy write strategy and collecting the LEAP options premium AND the dividend...Let's do it again...Oh btw..if you STILL own those leap calls you sold, get ready folks to buy them back at a fraction of what you got paid...This is EXACTLY WHAT YOU WERE HOPING FOR... My suggestion to you if you want to...you could buy this stock here at 43 using a 1/2 position and sell the 2004 LEAP Calls against it at the 45 strike OR EVEN THE 40 STRIKE OF THE Jan 2004'S..There's a big premium on those calls...I was looking at the Sept lows it was 27, heck if it gets there say by Oct lows, you buy the other 1/2 at 27 so you're average cost would be 35..right on the number, and then when you pick up the second 1/2 buy back the first part of those long calls you sold, and then sell the whole package 40 strike all over again...Oh wow..this is TOO COOL..I'm doing this my self<G>>... OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES...THEY MOSTLY HAD A RALLY UP AND INTO O/H R AT THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART..CHECK IT PLEASE... DJIA---THERE'S AN IMPORTANT CHART PATTERN ON P&F ON THE 100 POINT CHART..WHEN THE INDEX BROKE 9000 AS ADVERTISED HERE IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM BY 1 BOX...HOWEVER THIS INDEX REVERSED BACK UP 3 BOXES IMMEDIATELY..THIS IS CALLED A TRIPLE BOTTOM FAILURE CHART PATTERN...OBVIOUSLY IT MUST HOLD UP AND NOT BREAKDOWN HERE,,,SO WATCH FOR ANY BREAK OF THAT LAST WEEK LOW...9450 IS A NEW BUY SIGNAL ON THE DEFAULT CHART OR 50 POINT CHART..9500 ON THE 100...THAT CHART PATTERN IS BULLISH FOR THE DOW... NAZ/COMPX---FEEBLE ATTEMPT AT A RALLY WITH A DOJI THERE ON THE DAILY LIKE THE DOW...I WOULD THINK 1500 WOULD START A GOOD UPSIDE RALLY HERE. 1580 IS THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL..NOT SO SURE WE EVER SEE THAT<VBG>...WATCH 1420 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN... SOX---VERY WEAK LOOKING CHART HERE, BUT WHAT INDEX AND WHAT STOCK CHART DOESN'T????..THIS IS WHAT BOTTOMS ARE MADE OF FOLKS...WHEN EVERYTHING LOOKS LIKE CRAPOLA, THEN THIS IS IT...THE BPSEMI IS VERY NEAR A SOLID REVERSAL BACK UP FROM VERY O/S LEVELS...THIS IS IMPORTANT FROM THESE LEVELS... SPX---ACTUALLY I GUESS WE CAN SAY IT TOUCHED THE SEPT LOWS...SO WE NOW HAVE A PERFECT ROUND TRIP ON THE CHARTS...WATCHING 1006/1010 THIS COULD BREAKOUT THIS INDEX, I THINK IT WILL HAPPEN SOON...OF COURSE IF WE BREAK LAST WEEKS LOWS, THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF..I DOUBT IT WILL HAPPEN.. NDX--- BROKE THE SEPT LOWS AS THE WEAKEST LINK..DOJI FRIDAY TOO..1080 IS THE NUMBER TO GET IT GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.. BTK--THIS INDEX HELD THE 330 LINE 3 TIMES...REV UP TOO...AND THE BP BIOM IS .50% AWAY FROM REVERSING UP FOR DEEPLY OVERSOLD NUMBERS...BUT...A DOJI IS THERE FROM FRIDAY..WATCHING WITH GREAT INTEREST BECAUSE OF THE BBH BBH---WE HAD A SOLID BUY TRIGGER ON THE BBH LAST WEEK AT 86..YES THERE'S A DOJI THERE TOO, BUT IT DID MAKE A HIGHER LOW TOO...ANY SMALL PULLBACK EARLY IN THE WEEK AND REVERSAL BACK UP & THIS INDEX IS A "BIG TIME BUY RIGHT HERE" ALL THINGS ARE FALLING BACK INTO PLACE FOR THE BEATEN UP BIO TECHS...NOT SURE OF HOW BIG THE BOUNCE WILL BE..BUT IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN AND FAST... VXN---THIS INDEX GAVE 3 HARD BUY SIGNALS AS THE MARKET FELL LIKE A STONE...IT BROKE OUT AT 52 56 & 61 TO TOP OUT AT 66 WAAAAAY ABOVE THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND MAKING IT VULNERABLE TO A BIG FALL, LIKE A SLINGSHOT RUBBER BAND EFFECT...NOW IT'S FALLEN HARD BACK TO 58..MAYBE WE GET A SMALL 3 BOX BACK UP SETTING IT UP FOR ANOTHER FALL FROM THERE..WATCHING HARD HERE..THIS COULD BE AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR THIS INDICATOR.. VIX---MADE A LOWER TOP ON THE CHART AT 35..HOWEVER A HEADSUP HERE....THIS INDEX IS SITTING ON A DOUBLE BOTTOM RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE..THERE'S USUALLY SUPPORT THERE FOR A BOUNCE FIRST..BE FORE IT ROLLS OVER AND DOWN AGAIN GIVING A SELL SIGNAL...SO 32 FIRST THEN SHORT IT... XAU--PRINTED 72 AS EXPECTED AND GAVE A SELL SIGNAL...AS DID THE GOLD FUTURES BREAKING 316...SHORT ALL RALLIES UP....I HAVE CAUTIONED EVERYONE LONG GOLD TO EXIT WEEKS AGO... OK HERE'S THE STOCK'S WE LOVE TO TRADE..SOME OF THESE WILL BE BUY AND HOLD FOR EARNINGS THIS MONTH AND NEXT...AND YOU CAN USE OPTIONS TOO... QCOM---DOUBLE BOTTOMED AT 25 AND JUST LAST WEEK RVUP3BOXS TO 28...THIS STOCK MUST NOT BREAK 24 HERE...IT ALREADY GAVE HIGHER GUIDENCE...YOU COULD BUY THE AUGUST 25'S HERE WAITING FOR MON/TUES TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS...28.50 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...26.60 IS THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST)... ESST---THIS STOCK RAN UP AND INTO THE BRL LINE..THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE...AT 18 1/2...17 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN...16.90 THE SST...18.10 THE BTL... VSEA---DARK CLOUD COVER ON THE DAILY...RAN UP ON PRE ANNOUNCEMENT OF BETTER EPS...HIT THE 40 EMA ON THE DAILY..WHERE I SHORTED IT ON FRIDAY..AT 36.03...IT FELL LIKE A STONE<G>...IT RALLIED UP ON P&F TOO BUT AT A LOWER TOP HERE SO FAR...34.90 THE BTL...WAIT FOR IT...33 THE SST... AMAT---I LIKE THIS CHART..IT'S DEVELOPING NICELY..SLOWLY BUT NICELY...19.60 THE BTL...18.60 THE SST...YOU COULD BUY THE AUGUST 17 1/2 CALLS HERE AND HOLD THRU 1 DAY PRIOR TO EPS ANNOUNCEMENT..I AM FOR SURE THIS WEEK... MTON---THIS STOCK IS DOING A DCB HERE OFF VERY OVERSOLD LEVELS...IT BOUNCED UP TO THE 20 EMA DAILY..IT MUST CONTINUE UP HERE TO SET UP A HIGH POLE WARNING...16 WOULD BE THAT WARNING TO THE SHORTS..14.50 THE BTL...13.20 THE SST... ERTS---JUST A GREAT CHART HERE FOLKS..67 THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL AND NEW 52 WEEK HIGH..SO 67.20 THE BTL...65.15 THE SST...YOU COULD USE THE AUGUST 65 CALLS FOR A NICE LEVERAGE PLAY...I WOULD WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE MARKETS BRING EARLY IN THE WEEK.. EBAY---HELD 59 AS THE DB..REVUP3BX'S TO 62, IT MUST KEEP ON MOVING HARD...64 O/H R THERE...62.50 THE BTL...60.50 THE SST...58 IS A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK... QLGC---VERY CHOPPY CHART HERE...SEEMED TO HAVE BOTTOMED SHORT TERM...39.35 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HOD...37.25 THE SST... EXPE---HIT THE 200 EMA DAILY AND BOUNCED..WHAT A WILD RIDE...BROKE THRU THE BSL LINE AND THEN RALLIED UP HERE..HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORT...58.25 THE SST...60.25 THE BTL... KLAC---A REALLY LOUSY CHART SO FAR...AT THE BOTTOM...44.75 THE BTL...43.10 THE SST... MSFT---MAKING A SIDEWAYS BASE HERE..AND A GOOD ONE..COULD GO EITHER WAY TOO...55.20 THE BTL..HEAVY O/H R AT 56/57..BUT 57 IS A BIG MAJOR BREAKOUT THERE...53.15 THE SST..I WOULD WAIT FOR THE FIRST 2 DAYS NEXT WEEK, AND MAYBE TRY THIS LONG USING AUGUST 50 CALLS...51 WOULD BE YOUR STOP.. PYPL---POPPED UP ON MY BIG VOLUME SPIKE LAST FRIDAY...GOOD SUPPORT AT 19 SO FAR...20.60 THE BTL...19.75 THE SST... MYGN---GOOD VOL TOO ON FRIDAY...FINALLY GAVE A BOTTOM FISH BUY SIGNAL HERE...20.80 THE BTL...19.75 THE SST...I LIKE THIS STOCK LONG...MAYBE A BUY AND HOLD.. KROL---SHOWED UP ON MY VOL SCREEN TOO..THE SECURITY COMPANY...EXCELLENT CHART PATTERN..WATCH FOR A NICE REVERSE UP HERE TO GO LONG IN A POSITION TYPE TRADE...IT';S ALREADY PULLED BACK HERE...IF YOU BUY THIS YOU COULD DO IT THIS WEEK USING THE AUGUST 15'S OR 20'S...21.75 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT 22+++...20.30 THE SST... GILD---SOLID STOCK HERE..HELD THE BOTTOM AT 30, AND BEGINNING TO MOVE UP AGAIN...33.50 THE BTL...32.30 THE SST...I LIKE THIS STOCK AGAIN HERE...39 A NEW BUY SIGNAL ON P&F... IDPH---FORMING A TRIANGLE HERE BELOW THE BRL AND BSL LINES..BUT YOU HAVE TO START SOME WHERE<G>...36.10 THE BTL...34.75 THE SST. AFFX--TRYING TO BREAK UP AND THRU THE BRL LINE HERE..LOOKS VERY PROMISING FOR A LONG BUY AND HOLD PLAY...24.50 THE BTL...23.50 THE NICE SST... CEPH---OFF THE BOTTOM HERE...46 THE BTL WITH A MUST BREAK OVER THE FRIDAY HOD...44.50 THE SST... BRCD---UNDER THE TRENDLINE ON ALL CHARTS...NEEDS HELP HERE...18 THE BTL...16.90 THE SST... IBM--HEY IT'S A BOTTOM FISH PLAY<G>..IT GAVE IT;S FIRST BUY SIGNAL OFF THE HORRIFIC COLLAPSE FROM THE TOP...73.12 THE BTL...71 THE SST... OK SO WE WAIT AND WATCH FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN EARLY IN THIS VERY SLOW WEEK...AHEAD OF THE 4TH..I WAS SHORT MSFT--VSEA & QCOM ON FRIDAY FOR A CHANGE OF PACE..MADE $1.39 SO THAT WORKED OUT OK..WHEN BT(CHRISTINE) IS SHORTING I TEND TO TRY TO GO THE OTHER WAY SO AS TO GIVE A MORE BALANCED ROOM APPROACH..BUT I CAN AND WILL SS WHEN I FEEL THE NEED FOR SPEED... PEOPLE ON SI USED TO CALL ME "UN-AMERICAN" BECAUSE ALL I DID WAS SS..<G>...I'M GOING TO TEACH EVERYONE HOW TO DO IT AND MAKE SERIOUS MONEY... ANYWAY HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING WELL...BE COOL, I'M A BIT MORE BULLISH BIAS HERE.. BEST REGARDS JERRY Jerry Olson MasterClassTraders.com jerry@masterclasstraders.com buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com