Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (59366)	7/7/2002 9:55:06 PM
From: 2MAR$	Respond to of 208838

Elan <ELN.N> may cut earnings forecast -FT LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - Pharmaceuticals firm Elan Corp is expected to significantly lower expectations for this year's earnings when it holds a conference call for investors on Tuesday, the Financial Times reported. The Irish company, which has seen its share price tumble 95 per cent this year on accounting concerns, will not be able to meet the earnings goal of $1.55 to $1.65 per share it set at the beginning of the year, people close to the company told the paper. The collapse in biotechnology stocks, which has led to the group incurring an impairment charge, will also lead Elan to undershoot its target for net interest and other income, the FT reported in its Monday edition. An Elan spokesman was not immediately available to comment. The expected earnings shortfall comes as investors worry about Elan's sales and its ability to repay a $1 billion loan due at the end of next year. ((London newsroom +44 7542-7717, fax +44 20 7583-3769, andrew.hay@reuters.com)) REUTERS * end of story *

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (59366)	7/7/2002 10:12:09 PM
From: 2MAR$	Respond to of 208838

Vivendi faces ratings cut unless liquidity improves, Moodys... (Press release provided by Moody's Investors Service) TOKYO, July 8 - On July 1 Moody's Investors Service had downgraded the long-term senior debt ratings of Vivendi Universal SA <EAUG.PA> <V.N> to Ba1, leaving the rating under review for possible further downgrade. The rating action reflected growing doubts about the company's ability to achieve the level of debt reduction factored into the previous rating (Baa3) and to arrange refinancings of debt falling due over the next twelve months despite its broad and deep asset base. It also factored in Moody's expectation that Vivendi Universal's banks would provide continued support for the company and would assist it in the orderly implementation of its financing and asset disposal plans. In a July 3 press release Vivendi Universal confirmed that the company has a short-term liquidity issue and informed that it had initiated discussions with its main credit banks with a view to putting in place new credit facilities as soon as feasible. Against this background Moody's notes that the current Ba1 rating (under review for possible downgrade) assumes that Vivendi Universal succeeds in addressing its short-term liquidity problem comprehensively in the very near term in such a manner that its liquidity is assured for the time it takes new management to conclude additional asset sales for debt reduction and to restructure its liabilities. The agency added that in this process the company is becoming increasingly dependent on the support of its credit banks. In its opinion, time is of the essence, and wh/C/E TRADE ON FAVOURABLE U.S. CROP WEATHER REUTERS * end of story *

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (59366)	7/7/2002 10:19:53 PM
From: SusieQ1065	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

OI Bearish on CAH and GS.. Company Description Cardinal Health is the second largest US wholesaler of pharmaceuticals, surgical and hospital supplies. The healthcare service provider offers these products and services to independent and chain drugstores, hospitals, alternate care centers, and the pharmacy departments of supermarkets throughout the United States. The company also offers support services including computerized order entry and confirmation systems. Through its subsidiary, Pyxis Corporation, CAH develops, manufactures, leases, sells and services systems that automate the distribution, management, and control of medications and supplies in healthcare facilities. Play Description It is amazing how quickly the tides of fortune reverse in this market. It wasn't so long ago that the majority of the call plays were picked from the Health Care sector of the market, but judging from the carnage experienced in that arena in recent weeks, those stocks look better for puts than for calls. Just witness what has happened in the Health Care Payor index (HMO.X). After one last push to the north side of $650, the HMO index has been crashing over the past 3 weeks, trading as low as $560 on Wednesday in response to legislation changes and litigation concerns. Witness shares of CAH, which plunged from $63 to as low as $46.80 (a 25% loss) before rebounding back to the $60 resistance level on Friday. It is interesting to note, that after gapping up on Friday morning, the stock was completely unable to make any further progress, actually closing 50-cents below its opening tick. Responding to the precipitous plunge in its stock price, the company stated on Tuesday that the weakness was due to an erroneous rumor in the marketplace about its relationship with Arthur Anderson over the past few years. Company officials were quick to point out that there are no accounting improprieties. Whether there is any truth to the rumors is a secondary issue at this point, as the technical damage has been done and the stock is still buried under its descending trendline. A rollover near the $60-61 area would make for an ideal entry, as would a drop back under the $57 level. We are initiating coverage with our stop set at $63.25. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Company Description The Goldman Sachs Group is a global investment banking and securities firm that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net-worth individuals. The company provides investment banking, which includes financial advisory and underwriting, and trading and principal investments, which includes fixed income, currency and commodities, equities and principal investments. GS recently completed the acquisition of Spear, Leeds & Kellog, which is engaged in securities clearing, execution and market making, both floor-based and off-floor. Play Description Investors thinking that Friday's sharp rally will spell the end of the persistent bearish decline in the Brokerage sector (XBD.X) need only look at the price action in this index over the past month to cool their heels. After breaking below the $435 support level (also the 50% retracement of the fall rally), the XBD has been tracing a series of lower lows and lower highs for the past month. Breaking the 62% retracement at $408 on Tuesday, the XBD continued down to an intraday low of $392 on Wednesday before the oversold rebound began. It is entirely possible that this bounce could continue back to the $435 area, but short of economic prosperity breaking out all over, a continuation above that level seems unlikely. GS is the brokerage stock we most like to beat up on, primarily because of its consistent trading pattern over the past few months; namely DOWN. Connecting the intraday highs from late March to present yields a descending trendline that currently rests at $74, near the close of trading on Friday. A rollover near this level could be used for fresh entries, but we'd prefer to see a rally up to heavy resistance near $76 before taking a position. Then GS should fall of its own weight, as the plight of the market is revealed day by day with the commencement of July earnings season. Initial stops are set at $77. Traders looking to enter on a breakdown will need to wait for GS to fall through its recent lows (near $69) on heavy volume before entering a new position.