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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lucretius who wrote (177861)7/7/2002 10:07:52 PM
From: Patricianne  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Temper at the imf
washingtonpost.com

(hope this is a good link)

Patti



To: Lucretius who wrote (177861)7/7/2002 10:39:26 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 436258
 
Even I can fix that -- consider it done <vbg>



To: Lucretius who wrote (177861)7/7/2002 10:43:49 PM
From: At_The_Ask  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Beachside Bill speaks.

Sunday, July 7, 2002 9:23 PM ET
To: At_The_Ask
From: Beachside Bill

And I have been making money long during the down markets. Poor Clowns that only stay in their mutual admiration society and don't see short term and longer term changes. I am banned from the clown free zone just because of my opinion. Be Careful, this is what happened to shorts during the tech bubble.


Reply | Delete | File

I asked what he was buying long.


Right now, for July at least, and will hod this month...Homebuilders. All the boards hate them and they are wrong. The shorts have been pumping the short ticket and lost over the last year. Example new highs in LEN, HOV, PHM, KBH, etc. in the last two weeks during a market selloff. They keep buying the regionals and taking their margins that is over 100% of the debt they issue. This is great in a flat market but even better in a price appreciation market.
Go with the money flow!

Sunday, July 7, 2002 10:32 PM ET
To: Beachside Bill (who wrote)
From: At_The_Ask

Your right about the homebuilders. They did sell off a bit last year but have really exploded. I haven't been following them lately. They will have their day to fall someday. Likely when the first interest rate hike comes along or shortly before. Happened in the 70's also. Housing sales drop sharply because people don't want to pay the high tick on interest rates.
Most on the CFZ are experienced shorts. Few there would take a position in anything and let it run against them for very long. To imagine that everyone there went broke because they shorted anything and let it wipe them out would be a mistake. In the markets it doesnt really matter if you go long or short it just doesn't pay to be stubborn.

Most of the people who have been cleaned out lately are some of the obnoxious longs who have been buying the tech dips and getting cleaned out since January. Whenever you see guys bashing anyone with opposing market veiws it's a good bet that they are trying to convince themselves that their own position is right. They are reacting with anger because they don't want to admit they are wrong. If I have gotten anything useful from hanging around message boards over the years that lesson is probably the best.

Best of Luck

ATA

Ps I will post this and any other communications to CFZ.