To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37729 ) 7/8/2002 4:49:37 PM From: StockOperator Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52237 Terry, "this time is different." A dangerous phrase to use but history has shown that there are times when valuation models get thrown out the window. The period prior to 2000 showed us that those extremes could be carried to the upside, whereas, now with companies like LU, CIEN, CRMC.... are showing us the extreme to the downside. A process, imo, that is not finished. Think about the whole process of this bear market and what really needs to take place before a serious bottom can take place. First of all you would expect to see more analysts and W.S. "gurus" falling off the side of calling a market bottom. Perhaps even seeing some of the long term bulls like Batman or Cohen becoming more skittish with their optimistic numbers. Instead, we have seen guys like Hayes, Biggs, Stack, Hyman and Yardeni actually joining the bullish bandwagon with their calls that a bottom was here. The amazing thing about a few of these guys like Stack is how long they touted their bearish arguments, citing how far these markets could fall based on normal historical valuations. A level we are far from based our current pe's. My analysis of course has nothing to do with fundamentals. What keeps me bearish here is the entire structure of the charts. Company after company continues to price break in line with that downward pressure. A reality that both investors and pros keep discounting. We get a major close on the NDX below the Sept. low and people are still calling bottoms....h&s on LEH at a point when it's about to break a major consolidation....a major (initial) break down on FNM after an almost two year's worth of sideways action.... Where's the fear? We have two hundred dollar stocks trading under a buck and people are still afraid of missing the next run up. There was almost unanimous agreement on Bulls and Bears this weekend that the real danger, at this point, was NOT being in the market. Investors have in the past and will continue to learn their lessons the hard way. The market here will be the great equalizer. Not only for W.S. but Washington as well. The corruption, greed and excesses inherent in our system now can only be worked off by the pain inflicted by falling equity prices. To finish off, the market gave us a reversal day today which opens the door for a break of our recent strength with tomorrows trading. A major test for those calling the bottom in. Edit: Look at the afterhour trading in MANH down $6.+, look at the weekly chart - h&s. The signs are there for investors willing to look.