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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (148000)	7/8/2002 8:04:47 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576882

But I think another big impact may be inventory tightening at the combined CPQ/HP. Just reducing inventory by 3 weeks at HPQ and similar OEMs might cause a shift of 1-2M units from Q2 to Q3. Maybe this is a one time hit of 1-2M million units permanently shifting from Quarter n to Quarter n+1, and an additional hit of 1M units from slow end-user sales. How is this view different from simply saying there was a surplus of chips? That's what every one's concern seems to be. Back-to-school usually causes the June quarter to be back end loaded. Clearly, that didn't happen this year........it's why AMD had to warn twice. With HP and CPQ, I agree there may be some consolidation of inventory but I still think there's just too much supply in the channels........and that's the key problem. It could make the second half turn into two more bad quarters for the year. Such a move would affect AMD a lot more than Intel, because DELL probably orders weekly and already has low inventory. I think Dell benefits INTC in a number of ways if for no other reason than because Dell is stealing share from the other PC makers. Stealing share has helped keep INTC's fabs busier than AMD's. Can you imagine how short INTC would have been of its April guidance had they not been the exclusive vendor of Dell? Gross Margin would have been down to 45% by now. I believe its the single most important reason for why AMD can't get financial parity with INTC. Whatever......... ted