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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (20985)	7/8/2002 11:43:28 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi carranza2, <<Taking a big chance on betting against the dollar>> Yes, I knew this to be true and I know this to remain true. I am USD denominated, as are all of Hong Kong and most of overseas Chinese. <<the uncertainty>> There is that. <<... the coming conflict with Iraq>> I believe this will happen. <<volatility>> I am counting on it. <<might wish to exploit>> I will, along with everybody else, try. <<... the gold rush is over>> I believe the safest way to play Iraq is gold, as it is an 'opt-out'. <<...is over... as is the decline in the dollar>> This may be true, against the Euro and Yen, and thus it is time to consider the possible rise of the Canadian Dollar. My currency allocations (flavor of currencies) are of course a part of the overall context of asset allocation (cash vs. precious metal, bonds, equity, real estate), but remain a separate decision from overall asset allocation. I cannot make a convincing case for moving from cash to equity or bonds. <<trends I've seen--savings rate, GDP, and possible higher interest rates by late Fall, early Winter--suggest dollar is stable, probably>> This may turn out to be the case, and yet, equity and real estate in the US remainly highly valued, though less desired, thus no hurry with any recovery chants. There is simply no animal spirit in equity markets that could be sustainable, and this, together with the high valuation, makes a good case for tepid hunting in that jungle. Chugs, Jay