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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: penderjus who wrote (15350)	7/8/2002 10:20:55 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

["Slider,Do you really think xau 62 is coming? "] What I "do" right will make and KEEP me more money than what I "think" right. Mantra # 1. After doubles, triples and 4-baggers: THEY AINT GETTIN' IT BACK - ever, never - no how, no way ... It's more important to have and/or to HAVE had, a trading strategy/plan in place that guarantee's that the bulk of this move in Gold is already in the cash register ... safe & secure; than it is to be "right" in calling the eventual bottom of the pullback. Banking the bulk of the "BIG & EASY MONEY" move within a cycle... is WHAT cyclical investing is all about. I don't know about the rest of you guys... But - PIGS GET FAT and HOGS GET SLAUGHTERED. ...always have, always do ~ Doubles, Triples and 4-baggers in the bank... are plenty. Anything above HUI 150 from here on out... is the icing. I already ate and thoroughly enjoyed the hell outta the cake. Being the last one left in the kitchen to lick the icing off the spoons... AINT my style. Always beat the crowds to the party - and never, ever be caught hanging around at last call. That's why I'm straddled pretty wide here philosophically and trading strategy-wise. ie: imho from here on out - the only HIGH REWARD - LOW RISK money in the HUI will be made over 150, or under 90ish. And after banking a nice move in the Golds... I am NOT interested in taking on moderate, let alone HIGH Risk for the Medium, or Low rewards of trying to trade/scale back down into a pullback. - I'd be a buyer again on a breakout to new highs - thru prior resistance above HUI 150. or - I'd be a "re-buyer" on a pullback in the HUI to that really nicely fought battleground of support during Feb & March of around HUI 80. That's not to say that one can't make a little "pin money" doing a wee bit of trading in & out here...(keyword & concept being a - "wee-bit") but, NOTHING on a portfolio weighted basis should imho; be put at risk during transitional trading ranges... that in Cyclicals, can have the bottom fall out at any time. There is a lot of weak-handed MOMENTEUM money in this sector. WE know it... and THEY know it. There WILL be another major concerted effort to shakeout the mo-mo players and to cap the POG move... the derivatives exposure by the JPM-Chase cabal requires it... their survival LITERALLY requires it....they've got nothing left to lose... if they DON'T cap it... they're toast. By REFUSING to chase any dips; other than something to a significant of a degree of XAU 62/HUI 80 - that will obviously be accompanied by a sentiment capitulation by all of the momenteum players who arrived in GOLD after the first of this year... then; that may be a level to where the strong-handed long-term players hold, or re-buy. There was a very sold support level for nearly two tough trading months back in Feb & March at HUI 80. THAT is where the strong hands lie imho... and it's unrealistic to not think and to not be prepared (tradingplan-wise) for a significant concerted effort to cap the Gold move here again. I'd expect the dollar's decline to be slowed here and for GOLD to get whacked... we shouldn't discount the longerterm BULL cycle for Gold because we go back and re-test key support levels in the $280's, or even $270's. I'd be surprised actually if we didn't... $380 is the 10 year average POG. We'll get there in due time... and if we see an event driven crisis, or even just a continual slow grinding BEAR, with the dollar declining to where it should....with the DOW & S&P returning to that historic value level of a PE of 15ish... then we'll see $450... $600+ if the Derivatives Bubble pops... parabolic moves from there are historically supported by not just the GOLD Bull of 20 years ago (especially adjusted for inflation), but because the MADNESS OF CROWDS in the recent Tech/Telcom Bubbles has yet to be extinguished...and if GOLD can make a significant move while the memories of the Dot.Com Millionaires are still fresh in everyone's mind... then maybe the Gold-buggers can all be driving Ferrari's and buying Trophy Homes and Partying like it's 1999 ~(VBG).... penderjus... sorry, I miss a lot of PM's...I am a buying a little bit of physical silver on any & all weakness - with some retained profits here fwiw....nothing major, but I like the idea of a little "zero cost basis" physical for a real LT PM - portfolio hedge. And re: ["Osx,If usa does attack Iraq as Bush says wont oil prices rise? "] - Crude already has a $5 to $7 (hell, maybe a $9) Risk Premium built in for the supply disruption risk. The reason the OSX isn't reflecting $26ish Crude Oil... is because the oil service and drillers will NOT fundamentally benefit by a 30-45 day Waltz into Baghdad... and that's all it is going to take to remove Saddam this time... 30 to 45 days. We will be there longer than that... but, the period where the Crude Oil supply will be at risk, or questioned; will be less than 45 days - bank on it. The OSX AINT going to 140 based on a $5- $7 TEMPORARY Crude Oil spike... NOT during a soft global economic environment and a slow continual grinding BEAR market. GLOBAL RECESSIONS ALWAYS TRUMP - EVENT DRIVEN RISK. - especially when taking out Saddam and/or returning the flow of Oil - will be measured in days & weeks. ...throw in a still vastly overvalued broad market.. and that's why the OSX is in the 80's today. Rig counts, dayrates and earnings & revenue momenteum are not at levels to support any major OSX BULL Cycle imo. Now, if the OSX sells off to sub OSX 68ish - maybe a re-test of OSX 58ish - during "Black October" this fall... then yes; there will be a nice trading bounce play there... as fair value in this economic environment is a range of the 70's to 100.