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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (1618)	7/9/2002 10:09:25 AM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10157

I have seen others make changes before. Turn dates are not meant to be absolutely rigid. They never are because just like Elliot wave or any other kind of analysis, they are subject to interpretation. Turndates occur in varying degrees depending on how many "hits" they get which makes them more or less significant. Assumably turn dates alternate, so when you have one date that is a high, you assume the next to be a low. However, misinterpretation can occur and you can get a date that is of a different degree that doesn't fit into the cycle like it originally did. You can also get inversions where one date was supposed to be a high, but now you have 2 back to back lows. It happens. Any time you try to analyize the market, you have to adapt to it. That means when you make a call and it changes, you have to change with it otherwise, you will lose money. I had June 28th as a major date and assumed since the market was declining for a while that it could be a low. However, as we appraoched the date, we rallied into it by a few days which made it a high instead. If I had not adapted to the change, I would have missed a 70 point plunge in the S&P since the 28th marked an important high instead of a low. Same with the July 8/9th turn which is kind of looking like mush right now since one date was a high and today could be a low. Occasionally dates turn out to be duds. I change my mind depending on what the charts do going into the date as it gets closer. A good trader always adapts to the conditions as they change. My criteria...I follow a number of cycle and turn date people from which I get consensus numbers. I also do my own fib time work using my own calculations which I throw into the pot.