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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3909)	7/9/2002 11:01:38 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95487

Gottfried, thanks for the chart. Though I have to say it is pretty depressing for us fully invested longs (in US stocks). I am afraid that is just more encouragement to the shorts. Obviously the dollar and US stocks are moving in lock-step. Is it just co-incidence ? If it is cause and effect, what is the linkage mechanism ? And is it a self-reinforcing / positive-feedback loop ? or is there some countervailing force to prop up the dollar at some point ? I don't think these are difficult questions. But the lack of basic public info is making them difficult. For instance, how much dollar demand comes from tourism into the US normally ? And is this year higher or lower than normal ? How much do foreign students spend in the US ? and is this year typical ? How much of OPEC oil proceeds normally get deposited in US banks ? and this year ? I think all these questions are relevant. And their answers are known to someone. But he is not telling. Just shorting with impunity. Sarmad

To: Gottfried who wrote (3909)	7/9/2002 4:58:34 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

OT: G, I think we will see a lot of similar charts when looking at foreign currency vs the S+P500. Money is moving out of most US based stock equities. It's finding new places to work all over the world and it makes sense that some might focus on Japan as a viable alternative. We've seen the euro increase in strength against the dollar as well. The lack of confidence is not only in US stocks but also appears to be directly affecting the dollar, in part due to very low fed controlled interest rates. I also anticipate that we should see oil and NG prices continue their drop. NG in storage is very high for this time of year. There is some expectation that OPEC may engage in a price war to win back some of the market share they've lost. A lot of rumors floating around that OPEC will increase oil production in the near future. We have yet to reverse course and the bear is in full control. It will take a minor miracle for sentiment to change back into bull mode and I have a hard time seeing how the upcoming earnings reports could change the trend.