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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Bell who wrote (3232)	7/9/2002 5:48:04 PM
From: stomper	Respond to of 30712

Do we have another 50% to go before this bear is over To get to historic bear market valuations...yes. Ahhh, but the rub is when? -g- -dave "Palo Alto Research Center"...cool. Wish I had a mind for science.

To: Alan Bell who wrote (3232)	7/9/2002 10:36:21 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

AB, Reading these threads has really been an education for me. A lot of super posters who really spend significant time studying the markets. Jeff has really nailed it and credits the retrace. I spend a lot of time trying to understand sentiment and its implications. bigcharts.marketwatch.com We are in a bear market emotionally and objectively. It's the biggest, "baddest" bear that I personally ever remember. Bullishness in this type of bear prevents people from liquidating their equities. The prior mother of all bull markets, especially the years from 95-2000 taught all of us to be dip buyers and buy-holders. These feelings are more pronounced towards the end of bull runs and felt with with greater intensity in proportion to the bull run. Because people have been taught NOT to liquidate, and dip-buy, or at the worst buy-hold, they still have equities left to sell which will drive this market lower, imho. These feelings all serve the brokerage industry because if they can't manipulate a bull, it serves them next best to have people believe in the buy-hold. I believe it is these people that need to get disgusted with the market and sell out and finally not have the ability to drive prices lower. We will then have most money on the sidelines not ever wanting to reinvest. But reinvest they will because all of us hate to see prices rising without our own personal participation. I think that chart link needs to show fear of a magnitude greater than at any part of its history because the memory of the bull run will make it hard for most people to bail. But eventually they will, fear will be everywhere and that chart will spike up higher or stay up longer than ever before, which needs to happen because we are coming down from the "high" of the greatest bull market in our lifetime. Sorry for the lengthy reply but you asked. Finally, whenever I get weak knees I just reread Jeff's posts and others on this thread for support<g>.