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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12617)	7/9/2002 7:57:56 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

Isn't that what Pimco is claiming we have? A corporate credit crunch? Telcos obviously are going to be tight. Looks like retailers are pulling in the reigns on software spending. Europe is slow in the summer. Still think the economy depends on tech getting better and tech getting better depends on the old economy spending and they all depend on financials being healthy. No bull market without the financials participating. Wazzup with fnm? No bueno. TA

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12617)	7/9/2002 7:58:42 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

William, The executives I have spoken with recently all think that we are facing another 12-month downturn for the start of new projects. The big problem is that under close scrutiny large software projects are proving very hard to justify economically right now. There is also the unknown 'software license' inventory issue. One factor that will buffer the downturn is that much of the software purchased in 1999 had a three-year license. There will be a pickup in the software upgrade market. This will buffer but not buoy the downturn. Paul

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12617)	7/9/2002 8:02:34 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

well thats my issue with the downgrade... the 18mos part. We know things are bad but how much lower can they go if you have license revenue figures falling 20-50% q/q and maintenance holding up the numbers with not much upside built in.... NOW. I don't track siebel too much but one analyst upgraded MANU yesterday, with comments that channel checks look strong for supply chain. Its hard to be a bull right now in software so I suspect he actually did call some customers. Analyst thinks if investors wait on MANU they will miss out[51 sec] biz.yahoo.com I think the combination of Retek and Itwo last week has everybody freaking about software- Minneapolis-based Retek, which makes software for retailers, said it expects to report second-quarter net revenue of $60 million to $61 million, licensing revenue of $45 million to $46 million and earnings per share on an operating basis of 9 cents to 10 cents. $30 million in license revenue was delayed or deferred because of longer sales cycles, Retek said. For the third quarter the company said it expects operating earnings per share of 2 cents to 4 cents, software licensing revenue of $36 million to $38 million and total revenue of $52 million to $54 million. i2 The company, whose software allows businesses to share inventory and purchasing data with partners and suppliers via the Internet, said its software sales would come in between $25 million and $26 million, or less than half the $59 million reported in the previous quarter. He added that the lion's share of software sales came from existing backlog not booked in previous quarters. biz.yahoo.com