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To: yard_man who wrote (44944)	7/9/2002 11:26:51 PM
From: Cactus Jack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

tip, FWIW, Mish only gives Max Pain credence for the last 10 trading days before options expiration for that same month. Max pain for forward months tends to change too dramatically over time to pay attention to anything other than current month (in his view). jpgill

To: yard_man who wrote (44944)	7/9/2002 11:28:02 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I can't look at 2003 jan options and divine where prices are going to go can I? Nope. Not unless you've got a crystal ball, or your name is "Da Chief." <ggg> Now, if prices are reasonably smooth close to expiration, doesn't it make sense that there is going to be a "center of gravity" for the options around where we close on expiry?? Sure, I guess. If you don't have a time element included it is completey worthless -- I just see it referenced when the market has taken a hit. I've seen it referenced 2 weeks out -- 1 month out -- even 2 months out. Do you have any idea what max pain was for July options 2 months ago? Why do you need to know months in advance in order to make a trade? If, say, seven trading days out, one of the major Max-P movers, (which are few), is way above Pain, short the puppy or buy some poots. If one of them is way below, go long or buy calls. Around Wednesday-Friday of expiry, close the positions, pocket $$$, be happy, look around for another trade.

To: yard_man who wrote (44944)	7/9/2002 11:28:51 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

Generally, Max Pain is not very accurate more than 3-weeks out. It gets real clear 2-weeks out. Generally, I don't really look out more than 3-weeks except just prior expiration (to get a feel about what next month's looking like). Months that are not the end of quarters usually have lower open interest and are more likely to have a volatile pain number going into expiration. May, for example, had Max Pain move down about $3-4 in the weeks going into expiration if memory serves. The light open interest made that possible.