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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (34086)	7/10/2002 12:40:16 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 281500

Next Spring should be interesting. My guess is the thinking goes like this. "Iraq Light" should work. But what if we are wrong? They just can't afford a setback, where it does not work, we are humiliated, and have to reset and go in "heavy"

To: carranza2 who wrote (34086)	7/10/2002 12:45:12 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 281500

Some time ago, I saw some figures indicating that Saddam simply doesn't have the money to properly rebuild his conventional forces after the Gulf War. This is unfortunately a double edged sword as he might be tempted to rely on relatively cheap chemical or bacteriological means to defend himself. it's very hard for non-insiders to ascertain just what info can be relied upon and just what judgments are reasonable. As I mentioned, I've been reading the manuscript for Ken Pollack's forthcoming book on handling Iraq, and it's simply outstanding. It's basically got everything one needs to know to think intelligently about the subject--whatever conclusion one comes to--and IMO will be a must-read for folks around here. Hopefully it'll be out before the end of the year, and hence before any invasion... tb@yup.com