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To: Dr. Id who wrote (76)	7/10/2002 6:00:10 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 562

LTBH is fine in a 401K when you have 20 or 30 years before cashing out. When the time frame is shorter, if we've learned anything then it should be that to blindly hold onto one idea (Gorilla Gaming, LTBH) is very dangerous. I will certainly agree that investment horizon issues should come into play when evaluating LTBH positions. To be honest, that's not an aspect of investing I've ever thought of, given my age, etc. My point is just that a mechanical rule to sell when positions have risen a certain amount doesn't seem like a good idea, simply because it requires a lot more decisions, any of which one can flub. You may think that the lesson of the past five years is that positions should be sold after a substantial raise, but I think the lesson is that buying, say, NTAP at 1000 times earnings (which I did) was fricking insane. It was a question of valuation, not simply appreciation. In fact, selling our successful G&K's in 1995 wouldn't have been a good idea, because they weren't overvalued, IMO. You wrote: I think that the market of the last 5 years has shown that not having an exit strategy is a sucker's game. I agree with you, I just think that "sell when your stocks are overvalued" is a better exit strategy than "sell when you have big gains". I suppose I should have clarified that by LTBH I didn't mean hold indiscriminately, which is what many people often do (perhaps me too... but I shouldn't).

To: Dr. Id who wrote (76)	7/10/2002 10:04:28 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 562

However, the next time (if there is a next time) I have a 5x or 10x profit from my initial investment, I'm taking at least a sizable percentage of that investment off of the table. I agree but with a caveat--that the real reason to get itchy fingers is when one has good cause to believe that the profits in question are windfall ones, due to some exogenous factor (market frenzy, sunspots, whatever) and unsustainable.... I don't fault myself so much for not pulling out per se, but rather for being such a moron as to disregard all the signs that indicated an eventual regression to a saner mean... ltb/A@wetodditlemmingsRus.com