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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (272743)	7/10/2002 3:47:31 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

BUSINESS IN BRIEF Growth Revised to 6.1 Percent Friday, June 28, 2002; Page E02 The economy grew at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the January-March quarter, the strongest showing in more than two years. The latest reading on gross domestic product -- the total output of goods and services produced in the country -- showed the economy grew more briskly than previously thought, the Commerce Department said. The government first estimated that GDP for the period grew at a pace of 5.8 percent, then revised that to 5.6 percent a month ago. washingtonpost.com

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (272743)	7/10/2002 3:49:16 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

BUSINESS IN BRIEF Home Sales, Factory Orders Up New-home sales shot up 8.1 percent in May, the biggest advance in six months, as low mortgage rates motivated buyers. The larger-than-expected increase pushed up sales of new single-family homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.03 million, a record monthly level, the Commerce Department reported. Separately, the nation's factories, hit hardest by last year's recession, saw fresh signs of improvement in May, with orders for costly manufactured goods rising 0.6 percent, the department said. The advance in orders of durable goods -- items expected to last at least three years -- came after a 0.4 percent increase in April. washingtonpost.com

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (272743)	7/10/2002 3:51:54 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Says Recovery Remains on Course By John M. Berry Washington Post Staff Writer Thursday, June 27, 2002; Page E03 Federal Reserve officials, expressing confidence that the economic recovery from last year's recession remains on track, yesterday left a key short-term interest rate unchanged at its lowest level in four decades. In a statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's top policymaking group, after a two-day meeting, made no reference to falling U.S. stock prices, which some analysts believe could pose a threat to economic growth. The committee, as it did after its meetings in March and May, described its 1.75 percent target for overnight interest rates, as "accommodative," meaning the Fed's aggressive rate cuts last year were still giving the economy a boost. But the group also acknowledged that gains in consumer and business spending that caused the U.S. economy to grow at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year "appear to have moderated." And while the committee expects such spending "to pick up over coming quarters, supported in part by robust underlying growth in productivity . . . the degree of the strengthening remains uncertain." Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics Ltd. in Valhalla, N.Y., said it was "as upbeat a statement as one could hope for in the circumstances," with no mention of stocks and no hint of new recession fears. "This statement reads as though the Fed, like ourselves, has faith in the leading indicators but would be much happier if the hard data would soon catch up with them. In the meantime, and at least for the next few months, they aren't going to do anything" to interest rates, he said. Many forecasters agree that the economy is likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace, though some have begun to shave their predictions for the second half of the year. Their concern is that the recent sharp drop in stock prices could hurt consumer and business confidence to the point that their spending would rise only very weakly and perhaps cause the nation's 5.8 percent jobless rate to stay high or even increase. The committee decision to keep rates unchanged was widely expected, given the moderation in economic growth since the first quarter. But in recent days, as stock prices sank, some analysts had hoped the committee would acknowledge the threat to growth by saying it now outweighed the risk of rising inflation. Instead, the committee said the risks remain balanced. Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials have maintained for years that they do not use monetary policy to manipulate stock prices. Rather, they have said, they will respond appropriately if changes in asset values begin to hurt the economy. Steven Slifer at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York said that because of the outlook for stock prices and confidence, he puts the odds at 50-50 that the Fed will have to cut its interest rate target at least once this year and won't begin to raise rates again until early next year. Underscoring the uncertainty about where the economy is headed, some other economists responded to today's committee decision by suggesting the Fed should consider raising rates soon to make sure inflation stays under wraps. "It's worth asking whether the Fed's decision to keep rates at their lowest level in 40 years is wise now," said Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America in New York. "While the recovery is on the right track," inflation-adjusted interest rates "are far too low, and the dollar is showing signs of weakness," Levy argued. "It's time for the Fed to start gently reversing" the emergency rate cuts it put in place after last September's terrorist attacks. A number of economists and analysts have commented recently on the divergence between the recovering economy and the sagging stock market. "The economy is showing strength absent from financial markets," said Maury N. Harris, chief economist at UBS Warburg in New York, noting two economic reports released yesterday. New-home sales rose 8.1 percent last month, topping an annual rate of 1 million units for the first time in history. Meanwhile, durable-goods orders rose 0.6 percent last month after a 0.4 percent rise in April, figures that Harris said "point to a sustained rebound in manufacturing activity." washingtonpost.com

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (272743)	7/10/2002 3:52:20 PM
From: PROLIFE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Message 17656702 what do you think of username's thoughts on this?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (272743)	7/10/2002 3:54:38 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Manufacturing Grows For 5th Month By John M. Berry Washington Post Staff Writer Monday, July 1, 2002; 12:55 PM The manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy is back on solid footing after a long swoon that began well before the overall economy slipped into recession early last year. The Institute of Supply Management reported today that its index tracking changes in factory activity rose last month to 56.2, its highest level since February 2000. The monthly reading was the fifth in a row above 50, the point on the index at which manufacturing activity is neither contracting nor expanding. Separate indexes for new orders and production have now topped 50 for seven consecutive months, with the production index reaching its highest level since June 1999. Even the index for employment, at 49.7 last month, has almost reached the break-even point of 50. Analysts said the number of payroll jobs in manufacturing, which has dropped by 1.75 million--roughly 10 percent--over the past two years, could start increasing again soon. Strong gains in productivity and a longer workweek have allowed employers to boost production without hiring new workers. "The manufacturing recovery continues to gain momentum," said economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo in San Francisco. "Strong new orders and production indices are driving the growth. The rebound is broad based with fifteen of twenty industries reporting expansion of production." "A weaker dollar and stronger economic activity abroad is also helping export orders, which rose strongly as well," Sohn added. The improved performance of factories is one reason forecasters say the economic outlook remains very positive even though overall economic growth slowed from a red-hot 6.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year to a much more moderate 2 percent to 3 percent pace in the quarter which ended yesterday. Most of the forecasters predict growth will accelerate somewhat in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that construction activity slowed in May, with private residential building off 0.7 percent from April, private non-residential construction down 3 percent and public construction up 2 percent. Even with the May dip, residential building was up 7 percent in the first five months of the year, compared to the same months in 2001, while private non-residential construction plunged 16 percent for the same period, said Kenneth D. Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America. On the same year-to-date basis, industrial construction was down a huge 42 percent, office construction was off 28 percent and hotels and motel building fell 22 percent, Simonson said. "The residential sector is the most encouraging," he continued. "The strong reports on May home sales, median sales price, housing starts and building permits, along with very low mortgage rates and continuing growth in personal incomes, all point to ongoing expansion. This activity, in turn, will aid contractors who do site clearing, street, utility, school, religious and neighborhood retail or institutional projects." Some other analysts noted that the relatively poor figures for industrial and office construction did not signal that the economic expansion is in trouble. Construction of such projects, which often are cutback during a slump, are slower to recover than many other types of activity because of the long lead times involved for planning and permitting before construction begins, they said. washingtonpost.com