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To: Keith Monahan who wrote (4758)7/11/2002 10:05:41 AM
From: Keith MonahanRespond to of 24758
 
+DJ Mfrs Alliance Index Up To 63% In June, Highest In 2 Yrs

07/11/2002
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2002 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


(MORE) DOW JONES NEWS 07-11-02

10:00 AM

DJ Mfrs Alliance -2: Some Mfrs Had Trouble Getting Credit


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. manufacturing executives are more positive about the future than at any time in the last two years, according to a survey released Thursday by a trade organization.

The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey on the Business Outlook index reached a level of 63% in June, its highest level since it stood at 64% in June 2000. An index over 50% means that survey respondents expect the sector to grow over the subsequent three months.

Most components of the survey showed improvements in June, although the outlook for new capital spending remained weak, the survey said. The overall index stood at 52% in March.

In addition to the quarterly manufacturing survey, the June poll asked a number of special questions on the effects of interest-rate policy on industry. Manufacturers said their sales and costs are both sensitive to changes in interest rates, particularly sales of big-ticket items that are often financed.

About 27% of respondents said that in the past year, tighter lending standards have made it moderately to very difficult to obtain credit. About 59% of respondents said tighter lending standards haven't affected their ability to borrow commercially.

Manufacturers have cut back their spending, however. The survey said 67% of the firms have cut back investment on working capital, with 35% reporting reduced capital investment, and another 35% tightened credit and collection on sales.

More than half the survey respondents, 59%, said they were concerned that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates too quickly once there are signs of a strong economic recovery.

Within the business outlook report, the annual orders index fell to 55% in June from 62% in March. This measures expectations for orders this year, compared with all of last year, and still shows projected expansion this year, the report said.

Other components also showed improvement. The percentage of firms operating at more than 85% capacity rose to 22% in June from 19% in March. The profit margin index jumped to 46% in June from 39% in March.

The investment index, which measures prospective capital spending plans for 2002, rose to 36% in June from 32% in March, suggesting some improvement amid an overall weak outlook. But the research and development index rose to 57% in June from 51%.

The export order index rose to 52% in June from 38% in March. This marks the first time it has been above 50% since December 2000 and may be a result of a weaker dollar, the group said.

The shipments index, which compares expectations for prospective second quarter 2002 shipments to the same quarter a year ago, rose to 68% in June from 53% in March. The inventory index rose to 30% in June from 20% in March.

Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI is an Arlington, Va.-based group whose members include about 450 manufacturing companies. It was originally known as the Machinery and Allied Products Institute.

The quarterly business outlook survey is a poll of 59 senior financial executives representing a range of manufacturing industries, the group said.