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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (34119)	7/10/2002 10:19:49 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I am personally unconvinced that the war is necessary, but they seem determined to pursue it. They have put themselves into a position where they have to do it. I would hesitate to guess what the ME will look like 10 years from now. The problem of "opposite outcomes" from what we expect is large. I think the only approach that gets us off the hook is to consistently call for and push some sort of Democratic government, even if we don't like the Principals. That was the failure of the Gulf War. I think we got about all we could expect out of Afghanistan, and I would not be surprised to see a better outcome in the wake of the Iraqi war. One thing that helps is that Iraq has the oil as an instant source of funds to rebuild with. I am reading Robin Wrights book on Iran, and it has already given me a much broader view of the country, and a less hostile view of their particular form of Islam, than I had before starting the book.

To: Dayuhan who wrote (34119)	7/11/2002 6:35:57 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi Steven Rogers; Re: "I doubt that even the Saddam hardliners will put up much resistance to a massive attack ..." If the Saddam hardliners hole up in the cities there will be no "massive attack". We stopped aerial bombardment of cities in 1945 and haven't done it since in 3 reasonably large wars. After the lessons the Iraqis learned in the Bush I war, I would find it rather surprising that they would try to defend anything other than the cities, and those with small arms. For that matter, I doubt Saddam has had enough money in the last decade to spend on expensive military hardware. Small arms are more difficult to destroy from the air than big things. -- Carl