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To: Boplicity who wrote (8130)	7/11/2002 12:27:06 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

<<The daily dose of crooks running companies and all is bad for the republican’s doctrine. I bet you will be able to point to this summer as sea change to how companies are run which will go along with 9/11 as the start of a new era in both public and corporate governance. Touch stone like events if you will.>> Bo: You may be right...Investors of all sizes are demanding that CEOs and management be more accountable...So far the government has done very little to follow up on corporate fraud and encourage strong corporate governance -- the stock market is reflecting this.

To: Boplicity who wrote (8130)	7/11/2002 9:30:09 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

in 6-12 months, expect to see "other" effects of declining US$ if you believe the press, then it will be fine exporters will do much better but I can cite 20 declining dollar effects and only 1-2 are good, the rest are bad a few are HORRENDOUS imagine all the positives from the virtuous cycle in 1990's dollar rises, foreigners enter US financial markets bonds rise, interest rates fall, stocks rise mortgage rates rise, property values rise as stocks and property rise, so rises consumer purchase power now imagine the vicious cycle of the 2000's new decade dollar falls, foreigners exit US markets stocks fall, temporarily bonds rise interest rates remain low for now as stocks fall, consumer purchase power declines but so far, consumer debt is rising at an incredible rate round #1: foreigners sell stocks round #2: foreigners sell bonds round #3: inflation returns via import prices it has already started asian suppliers are now battling the titanic struggle as one of two things must occur... asians keep prices constant, and EAT THE LOSS TO MARGINS americans see prices rise, as THE DOLLAR EFFECT IS FELT there is no alternative except compromise on sacrafice right now, asians are giving in that will be devastating to the asian economies that is also why the declining dollar will not be very good to american exporters our customers will be hurting the Rubin Strong Dollar policy now must reverse the effect will be steady worldwide recession as inflation steadily rises from the dollar effect, the other primary inflation force will kick in which is the unprecedented rise in US money supply monetary inflation typically takes about 6-12 months to produce price inflation for goods & services this time it took longer, because of the deflationary forces from debt collapse and liquidation and then the twin tower debts I expect the dollar decline to have zero impact on our trade gap debt as foreign economies wilt from strengthening currency, poorer pricing, our trade debt will remain unchanged but our federal deficit will mushroom I EXPECT WELL OVER $1000 BILLION FEDERAL DEFICITS BY 2003-04 the twin tower debts pertain to the govt and economy but household debt is rising off the charts with falling stock portfolios, consumers will soon cut back the dollar decline has only begun the press has no clue as to its detrimental effects its main two consequences will be... loss of foreign financing of stocks and bonds return of price inflation I expect the dollar to decline ANOTHER 25% at least by 2004 one thing for sure about currencies, they move fast thanks to currency futures contracts the USdollar is now becoming a victim of DOLLAR CARRY TRADE this is the vicious cycle rates rise from both inflation and foreign bond sales mortgage rates rise, taking down slowly real estate stocks fall, reducing consumer purchase power it feeds on itself for a few years forget the fact that the economy is recovering now when rates rise, corporate profits disappear altogether then stocks fall farther, much farther 75% of companies have swapped their longterm debt for shorterm debt, leaving themselves extremely vulnerable to rising rates Greenspasm is powerless we have exported control of both the dollar and interest rates 40% of USTBond debt is held by foreigners dollar selling will be a critical part of the vicious cycle get ready for Dow 5000, Naz 800 all safe havens will be attacked and reduced in value Dow is happening now, long overdue next will be real estate, where the bubble shifted into good luck, and watch the dollar it is the key to the stock market, bond market, real estate market, and the US economy the press called the rising dollar critical to the expansive 1990 decade now they claim a falling dollar will be beneficial also get a grip with reality a falling dollar is as harmful as a rising dollar was helpful later, Jim