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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (179020)7/10/2002 11:49:50 PM
From: Activatecard  Respond to of 436258
 
Interesting observation

the U.S. private sector debt
alone is over 280% of GDP," Russell's reader explains,
"and is the largest debt pile in world economic history.
The U.S. telecom sector alone has more debt than the
entire Japanese property sector did or has."

"In the first quarter of 2002, consumers borrowed at an
annual rate of $695 billion - breaking all previous
records," Dr. Richebacher elaborates. "Their incomes, on
the other hand, rose at an annual rate of only $110
billion. And for the 12 months ending in April of this
year, $5.9 dollars of debt was added for every $1 of
growth in GDP."

Adding debt to the system is inflationary: there is the
illusion of greater purchasing power, which boosts up
whatever market is hot at the time. Stocks went up in
the '80s and '90s; now real estate is having its turn.

If only it could continue forever! Alas, that is not the
way of the world. For each additional dollar of debt
produces less and less economic progress...and is
therefore a heavier burden than the dollar that preceded
it.

At some point, people realize that they cannot afford to
continue borrowing - their debt-service payments have
become too much of a burden. Instead, they have to cut
expenses and pay down debt. Then, prices fall...sales go
down...jobs are lost...and the economy sinks into a
deflationary recession.

This, of course, has been the economic history of Japan
for the last 10 years.

More to come...

Bill Bonner