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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (13026)	7/11/2002 2:08:32 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14638

Is it going to get cheaper before it gets more expensive? Skimming along at 2.00 CAD. and holding , but in a poor market inv. will it break and go to 1.50 CAD or 1.00 USD? I think the question you want to ask first is is it going to lose 100% of its equity value? I believe NT extended their line of credit for one year back in March. If things don't pick up before that credit line expires again, and therefore the banks decline to renew it, NT quickly becomes a leading bankruptcy candidate. There is not much in the world of telecom services at the moment that indicates things will pick up before March 2003, and lots of things (WCOM, Q, slowing wireless subscriber growth, no growth at the RBOCs, declining long distance prices, France Telecom heading toward bankruptcy) that indicate equipment spending can continue to decline for multiple years. I think your only strong plays in telecom equipment are compnies with such strong cash positions (JDSU, TLAB, CIEN) that they can handle the possibility of spending modestly declining every year from 2001 to 2005. Companies with high debt loads (NT, LU) are going to get thrown into bankruptcy if the debt comes due and their industry and cash flow are still going the wrong way. Elroy