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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Fleuris who wrote (33924)	7/11/2002 12:10:30 PM
From: HerbVic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

Consider though, Dan, that in your analysis you are mixing two variables as though they were one; market share as a percent of units sold and market share as a percent of installed user base. If the annualized 0.5% convert number is hypothetically true without reverse migration, then the percent user base would increase, but the effect on market share as a percent of units sold would be unchanged from the initial 3.5%. That should mean roughly 4 years at 0.5% per year, or 2%. Thus, if those numbers are correct, we should have seen market share go from 3.5% to 5.5%, or well on the way to doubling. HerbVic

To: Dan Fleuris who wrote (33924)	7/12/2002 1:27:33 PM
From: jonkai	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213182

if those numbers are correct, we should have seen market share go from 3.5% to 5.5%, or well on the way to doubling. you are confusing monthly or quarterly market share numbers with total market... apples' total market is hard to gage..... when they have good products in a month, those market share figures PER MONTH do double.... also when you add the new users, which was about 35%... apple's market share was spiking by even larger numbers everytime they introduced a new product... when the flatpanel imac came out, the surge went all the way up to 12% of total maket share for that month in Japan..... and that was before the imac was shipping, that was preorders.......... then these monthly market share numbers slowly fell off to where they are now.... 5% of the consumer market.... 3% of the all computers per month....... 30% of education...... (total computers "in use") market share is much harder to calculate.... i would guess that if you just looked in homes rather than business..... that market share would be somewhat higher than 5%...... since Wintel users throw away their old computers because they are worthless.... while Mac users give their old macs to their friends and family........ A garbage person (sanitation engineer) in new York had an interesting perspective on this...... when he noticed that he had tons of computers ending up in his trucks... literally, and noticed that NONE of them were macs..... he then asked around and none of his co-workers could remember ever seeing a mac in their daily pickups..... jon.