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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1853)	7/11/2002 12:41:51 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

IMO Bush, Cheney, and Pitt are big problems for the market -- they have NO credibility now when it comes to going after corporate fraud and corruption....It would be ideal if they would step down and let McCain and a new team take over. Of course we know that won't happen...=)

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1853)	7/11/2002 1:13:59 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Another downgrade sinks GM [I told my relatives to SELL it when it was near $70 but they didn't] By Susan Lerner, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 12:00 PM ET July 11, 2002 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Saul Rubin hit the brakes on General Motors Thursday, marking the second downgrade in as many days for the world's largest automaker. Calling the automaker's pension risk "intolerable," the UBS Warburg analyst sliced his rating on shares of the Dow component (GM: news, chart) to "hold" from "buy" even tough he remains confident that operations remain strong. "We now believe the parlous state of the GM pension plan to be of great enough concern to downgrade the stock, notwithstanding our upbeat view of the state of the business of making automobiles," Rubin wrote in a research note. GM and Ford, each of which skidded about 7 percent following Banc of America Ron Tadross' downgrade Wednesday, lost more ground Thursday. GM was down $1.95, or 4.1 percent, to $45.66 and Ford was off 77 cents, or 5.5 percent, to $13.22 in late morning action. The pension fund, he said, poses two major risks: mandatory funding requirements and a hit to expected earnings. The fund significantly exposes the company to the performance of the broad securities markets, he said. "Save a remarkable recovery in the equity market, it appears unavoidable that the GM pension expense will grow significantly in future years versus 2002, placing in jeopardy GM's mid-decade target of $10 in earnings per share," Rubin said. "If the S&P 500 index falls just 10 percent for the year, and then grows by 7 percent in each of the subsequent three, we estimate the increase in the expense versus 2002 will cost GM $1.30 in EPS in 2003 and $2.40 in 2005." Based on his calculations, Rubin believes the pension deficit is likely to grow substantially in coming years, triggering mandatory funding requirements to the pension fund and posing risks to the current credit ratings. "With the S&P 500 Index down 20 percent year to date, it seems unlikely that GM will be able to escape the need for a large equity-linked issue at some point in the coming years." On Wednesday, Prudential analyst Michael Bruynesteyn also commented on the rising pension costs looming for all of the big three automakers but he estimated GM would be hardest hit. "What we think is particularly frightening about the pension and healthcare situation is that there appears to be little that the automakers can do to turn it around," Bruynesteyn told clients. Yet pensions were barely mentioned by Tadross Wednesday when he downgraded GM and Ford (F: news, chart) to "market performer" from "buy" on Wednesday. The Banc of America analyst's concerns surrounded industry pricing issues. "Extended warranties look like the latest weapon in the domestic automaker arsenal and we think GM and Ford will need to acquiesce," Tadross said indicating that he believes both will be forced to match DaimlerChrysler's (DCX: news, chart) recently announced extended 7 year/70,000 mile powertrain warranty to protect share. Forecasting a costly impact from the extended powertrain warranty, Tadross lowered his 2003 earnings per share estimate for GM to $6.50 from $7.75 and for Ford to 45 cents from 95 cents, but he believes there could be more downside to those numbers because industry pricing "looks fierce." As earnings estimates get revised further below "normalized levels," Tadross believes the stocks will trade further below his normalized sum of the parts value estimates of $53 for GM and $22 for Ford. "Ford still shows some upside to normalized value, but pension and health care performance has weighed on GM's value," he said. Susan Lerner is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1853)	7/11/2002 1:19:35 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

The Bogus Recovery agora-inc.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1853)	7/11/2002 1:25:07 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Accenture Plans To Dismiss 1,000 Managers by Aug. 31 Monday July 8, 6:00 pm Eastern Time NEW YORK -- Accenture Ltd. said Monday it is dismissing about 1,000 managers, or 1% of its global work force, by Aug. 31 as demand for its consulting services remains weak. Accenture, which split off from Arthur Andersen LLP in 2000, announced the move to its 75,000 employees in an internal message several weeks ago and some of the dismissals have already occurred, spokeswoman Roxanne Taylor said. "It's a normal balancing of supply against demand" given soft economic conditions in certain regions, Ms. Taylor explained. The cuts will be focused on U.S. , the U.K. and Australia , and completed by Aug. 31 . The Bermuda -based firm won't take a restructuring charge for the moves. Despite the reduction, Accenture expects to complete its fiscal year ending Aug. 31 with 75,000 employees and add about 8,000 positions next fiscal year. Accenture, formerly known as Andersen Consulting, is slated Friday to report results for the fiscal third-quarter, which ended May 31 . The company and analysts are projecting stagnant earnings and revenue compared with year-earlier levels. The current consensus calls for earnings of 26 cents a share and revenue of about $2.96 billion. -By Marcelo Prince; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5244; marcelo.prince@ dowjones.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1853)	7/11/2002 2:17:07 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 89467

Jim...I just entered VTSS at 2.56...Zeev sees a run to 4-5 per share...the rally he 'Expects' should run to 1540 or so...then cave to a new low.......... (if the turnips fail...Its head for the hills..but) " Not Yet...Dear Lord...not Yet"..St Augustine T To:qveauriche who wrote (121466) From: marginmike Thursday, Jul 11, 2002 1:10 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 121470 QV a fair argument, and you may well be right. HOWEVER the bear case is as follows. Asset bubbles like the one we have just lived through do not end with litlle minor recessions. All the excess's that were created, and all the balance sheet damage created by the bubble need to be corrected. The Us govt,consumer and its corporations have built up massive debt and have created the real bubble which is a credit bubble. Stock and housing prices have been inflated by new age financial derivitives and financing plans. This credit bubble is still in full tilt as you can see by the 0% financing and incesesent Mortgage ad's. The stock market bubble has been poped but the credit and Dollar bubbles still remain. UNTIL these bubles are corrected the economy and markets will not bottom. I am not saying there wont be a rally here, cause I think there will be, but we havnt had the REAL RECESSION yet. That will occur as the housing and retail biz hits the skids. The real economy is still structured arround Construction and just like the dow held up in lieu of Nazdaq housing is holding up in lieu of the overall economy. I am just now hearig that people I know are cutting back. The new reality is just beginning not ending, and until people feel that the futuire is really bleak there will be no bottom. All I hear is how good things are out there. Except everyone I know isnt making any profit % because of margin squeeze, deflation, and competition. This quarter the earnings will be drasticly below where people expect them too as CEO's think twice about managing their quarter. I would also point out that one of the ways companies like IBM and DELL made numbers was by borowing money and buying stocks are selling puts. This invisible suport for stocks will cease as the blow up in these companies faces. I would also mention the pension liabilities for major US companies are beginning to come to light as we speak. This will be a huge drag on earnings unless something changes soon.