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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (45289)	7/11/2002 1:07:23 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Despite broken charts all over, I see a basis building for a bounce here...don't know if it starts today, or early next week.. 1- Dollar has gone down hard, due for a bounce here soon (if not already)- even if corrective (should support stocks)..last couple days, dollar has steadied (some) 2- Options ex and the week preceeding(late)...have often been rally portions of this year's action 3- VIX spike to above 41 this morn...could go higher, up 40% in 4 trading days. Business headlines have been awful for last couple weeks...basically the worst newspaper "sentiment" I've seen since the bear began-including last Sept. The entire U.S. capitalist system has been on trial as of late (note: I do think the headlines will eventually get worse, and eventually land in boringland for years)..but I also believe we are seeing a fear spike in short-term newspaper sentiment. "Can you trust ANY of these companies anymore". My informal J6P poll shows severe distrust of the markets, and much less "oh they come back, won't they?" type thinking that existed a couple months ago 4- Bullish NDX, COMP divergence today 5- AAII numbers (39/37 right?)... 6- MSFT could go to 56/57 w/current chart pattern, before serious dump 7- July precedes worst time period for stocks (Aug-early Oct)...a "window" for up? 8- I'll let you guys fill in rest. I wouldn't want to be caught dead long after this "bounce" of course, but if we go much lower on MSFT, etc (below 1296 on COMP?)...crash scenarios seem likely, and I have a hard time betting on crashes (mostly unprofitable days when I did). Yes, I am fool long here.ng