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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (15579)	7/11/2002 2:05:17 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

Slider, it pays to pop up out of the bunker once in a while doesn't it? Just to survey and taste the carnage. Gotta dodge a few bullets every and now and then though, for sure. I think we are close to an interim bottom here, don't you? Especially in tech. We are seeing some of the fear we all wanted to see, in defensive areas. Wonder how Greenie's bunker is holding up? Does he have the latest in optical switching?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (15579)	7/11/2002 2:32:44 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 36161

Slider, the utes seem really beginning dippers here. I like SRE the best. The holder IDU is also a reasonable way to play this. BMY tried to fill its gap from this AM, but just failed. Still, a good company. Nice entry Slider on your picks. wr

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (15579)	7/11/2002 3:23:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 36161

I expect over $1000B federal deficit in 2003 or 2004 as that deficit grows, the dollar fundys erode further Bush Sr had the last $1 trillion fed budget deficit his son will have the next the dollar will be selling at a heavier discount by then I believe I read May's federal deficit was $60B the annualized fed deficit is now accelerating, near $700B this combined with trade gap will keep constant dollar pressure I predict that lower dollar will have no impact on trade gap but the federal deficit will mushroom out of control in a couple years, we will struggle to stop its acceleration and $1000B fed deficit will look like "good ole days" not sure the federales have as much gunpowder as you imagine you assume the federales have considerable power now Greenspam is demonstrating an amazing shortage of power no power to stimulate the economy with lower rates no power to support the dollar with higher rates in May the Bank of Japan intervened a few times at 124 yen now much lower each intervention comes with less power, punch, credibility but each lower dollar and Dow level, the intervention has more chance of succeeding tough chess game but generally, all intervention efforts fail as they interfere with the market's ability to seek equilibrium right now, confidence in America is on a steep downslope I snicker at many people's perception of Fed power it is about as low as the Dow index right now we will see I think longing oldline stocks carries its own risks unless you want to capture a very brief rally hours, days, couple weeks Fed power is a strange concept some actually fear a gold confiscation effort that would invite an overnight 30-40% dollar decline Fed power could before long result in total depletion of national gold reserves but as we get past 50% depletion, collaterizing of our Treasury debt becomes a more public issue the English have already sold 70-75% of their national gold the Germans have decided it is safer to sell America's leased gold than to sell their own go figure out the logic there unsure 8500 will be the line that is successfully defended more and more people are tossing in the towel the capitulation process is only 20% along imho who knows? maybe a sustained 3-week rally will happen only because the Big Houses need it so much for their exit / jim