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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1882)	7/11/2002 4:34:32 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Morgan Stanley's Biggs pens essays for the bulls (Adds comment from money manager, background) Thursday July 11, 4:24 pm Eastern Time NEW YORK -(Reuters) - Barton Biggs, one of Morgan Stanley's top strategists and a vocal bear during much of the market bubble three years ago, told clients on Thursday stock prices had declined to the point where the deeper the drop, the more bullish he becomes. "Of course, there have been abuses and fraud," Biggs wrote in a note to clients entitled "Don't Bet Against America." "But the vast majority of corporate America was not as involved in the excesses, and its shares did not get as outrageously overvalued. "Therefore, as stock prices decline, I become more bullish," Biggs added. "I don't believe we are on the verge of a new bull market, or the immediate resurrection of TMT (technology, media and telecommunications). "At today's prices, however, I do think that investors can make money in the short run and that this is no time to be selling stocks," Biggs added. In recent days, the U.S. stock market has been pummeled to lows unseen since 1997 as the long parade of corporate scandal continues to scare investors out of the market. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) has fallen 21 percent since its March high while the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) has fallen 29 percent. Biggs joined other already bullish Wall Street strategists who say the plunge in the markets provides investors with a golden opportunity to invest. "This is a gentleman who is very well respected on Wall Street, who has been around the block more than most ... and, therefore, has a perhaps better perspective on the noise that is currently swirling around our businesses," said Charles Crane, strategist with Victory SBSF Capital Management, which oversees about $4 billion in assets. "He is providing a calming voice of reason in the face of a market where reason has taken a back seat to emotion," Crane said. Jeff Applegate, chief market strategist for Lehman Brothers, said on Thursday stocks were "approaching very extreme levels of undervaluation." Rather than worry about further downside, investors should spend their time screening buy ideas, he said in a note to clients.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1882)	7/11/2002 9:07:48 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Still more shoes to drop IMO......... General Commentary For quite some time now, we have been focusing mainly on the negatives - there's just been soooo many to pick from it was difficult to do anything else... But today we want to highlight a few of the positives... Not just because the Nasdaq bounced back from early weakness yesterday to close with a modest gain... We predicted as much on this page yesterday... No, we simply want to remind folks that even though it looks very bleak in the markets right now there are some encouraging developments. Chief among them is the general improvement in the economy... Most noteworthy has been the pick up in business spending, as evidenced by the jump in factory orders, first rise in inventories in 17-months and the rebound in the ISM index... Strength in the trucking industry also a good sign that business activity is on the rise... Given that it was the sharp drop in corporate spending which pushed the economy into recession, improvement on this front is essential to a) a prolonged economic recovery and b) a rebound in earnings... Typically, one would expect the market to be ahead of the economy... Unfortunately, the market noise created by corporate scandals and ongoing global unrest has managed to drown out the favorable changes in the economic backdrop... However, if and when the scandals move off the front page, market attention will eventually shift back to the economy; and when it does, stocks could be in a for a nice lift. As for earnings, market sold off sharply in advance of Q2 results... Briefing.com notes that it's not unusual for indices to move in the opposite direction of pre-earnings season move... With so much negativity priced into market, even if we don't get a rash of new buying we should at least see some short-covering as the numbers start rolling in -- especially if they aren't terrible... Though it's an admittedly small sample size, the news out of the telecom sector after yesterday's close was good enough to compel shorts to cover, as JNPR, SONS and PWAV posted better than expected sales/earnings numbers. Other points of interest include the historically high VOX (volatility index) reading and the growing sense of despair -- both are indicative of deeply oversold conditions. Briefing.com is not suggesting that the bottom is in... However, based on the oversold nature of the market and the potential for some earnings-related short covering, we could see a near-term rebound that retraces between 38-50% of the most recent slide... Longer-term, the market can't ignore the economy forever... If the data continue to improve, so to will the earnings picture... Stock traders will ultimately be forced to take notice. Robert Walberg, Briefing.com