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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 5:07:45 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
<<McCain never to be prez, VNam prisoner psych issues, sad>>

JW: What about Bush's corporate fraud psych issues..?? He must feel as guilty as they come...He's now trying to outlaw what he's done in the past -- maybe he and Kenny Boy could team up and teach an ethics course at Univ. of Texas Business School <VBG>.



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 5:39:55 PM
From: habitrail  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
yeah, he's the manchurian candidate



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 8:59:43 PM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
Stock Brief

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Updated: 11-Jul-02

America's Brutal Efficiency

[BRIEFING.COM - Gregory A. Jones] Amid a sea of pessimism, there is one reason for optimism - we live in a country that reallocates capital with brutal efficiency.

The S&L Example

In the late 1980s/early 1990s, both Japan and the US experienced banking system crises. The causes of these problems were not identical; Japan's problems were primarily the result of an asset price bubble, while the US crisis was the result of the bungled savings and loan industry deregulation.

Despite the different causes, the effects were quite similar. In both countries, the supply of credit dried up and the economy suffered.

But the policy responses could not have been more different. The US responded by aggressively closing failed institutions and selling their assets at auction. These asset sales were critical, as they quickly reset prices for key markets such as real estate and restored liquidity as a result.

In Japan, the policy response was to support failing institutions and prevent the liquidation of assets. The banking system's bad loan woes escalated as a result, and liquidity in the real estate market dried up as investors waited for the inevitable sale of distressed properties by banks. Twelve years later, they are still waiting.

That is an excellent example of America's tendency to embrace "creative destruction" - a hallmark of capitalism. That this embrace occurred at the government level in the S&L example is all the more impressive, as the government is the least likely segment of society to accept any kind of economic destruction.

Market Brutality

Though the government's aggressive response to the S&L crisis was impressive, the US private sector is even more adept at reallocating capital.

Whether it's a commercial bank, mutual fund, individual investor, investment bank, or venture capital firm, US providers of capital are ruthless in punishing bad ideas and rewarding good ones.

A recent example has been the telecom sector. This is an interesting case study, as it shatters any myth that the private sector always allocates capital correctly. It does not, and never will - mass psychology always has and always will lead investors badly astray at times, even professional investors.

The key is that such mistakes are corrected quickly - failed companies cannot be propped up, and losses must be realized. The telecom sector has seen both. Bankruptcies of many large and small players have occurred without government intervention or any significant disruption to capital markets. The debt of these companies is written down as a result, and these losses have been absorbed by banks and investors with little damage to the economy.

Most impressively, this destruction in the telecom sector has occurred without creating any capital crunch for legitimate companies and sectors. Corporate yields have even come down for higher quality names and for more reliable sectors such as railroads even as they have blown out for telecom. Instead of leading to a freeze of capital markets, a full-scale sector implosion is simply leading to a rapid reallocation of capital.

A similar reallocation is now getting underway as a result of accounting concerns. Though it's difficult to determine who the next Enron might be, capital can be reallocated to sectors and stocks that have more credible accounting. This could include a respected CFO with a history of conservative accounting, greater financial disclosure, a simple capital structure, or a clear reluctance to "massage" earnings in the past.

We have already seen where companies such as GE and IBM have been punished for past accounting. The complexity of GE Capital's accounting has long been a source of investor concern, and IBM results have benefited from pension fund gains and one-time asset sales.

In contrast, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), a man and a company that are virtually synonymous with clean accounting, has traded sharply higher since the market peak in March 2000.

Creative Destruction Is Two Words

Any period of dramatic creative destruction is grim - the destruction is focused while the creation is dispersed, thus producing greater visibility and more headlines for the destruction.

That was the case with the resolution of the S&L crisis and is certainly the case with the current pain being inflicted on the telecom sector and any company or sector with accounting uncertainty.

While the creation process is less visible, it is occurring and will ultimately bear fruit. This realization does not help in identifying a short-term bottom in the stock market, but it does help to keep the bad news in perspective. While media types are starting to warn that we may be in for a repeat of the 1966-82 bear market, they do so solely on the basis of the negativity in the market rather than on the basis of similarities between the periods. A key difference is that capital markets have become far more efficient in this country over the past 30 years, tending to increase the pace of a downturn and bring forward the onset of recovery.

The destruction underway is a necessary precursor to rebuilding. It would be far more worrisome if the market were not punishing the sins of the telecom sector and those with lax accounting. Capitalism at work is not always pretty, but the results are.

Greg Jones - gjones@briefing.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 9:23:27 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Merrill Lynch says its gold funds may rise as stocks decline

Bloomberg
July 12 2002 at 12:12AM

<<Tokyo - Merrill Lynch Investment Managers' top gold fund, ranked number two worldwide, might add to this year's 85 percent gain as a weaker dollar and falling stocks rekindled demand for the metal and shares in gold producers, it said yesterday.
Merrill's International Gold & General Fund has this year beaten all but one rival fund that invests in gold producers and has outperformed benchmark indices in Japan, Europe and the US.

South African miners such as Gold Fields and Harmony Gold Mining and Australian rivals such as AurionGold make up more than three-fifths of the $1.2 billion in Merrill's gold funds.

"We like to hold quite a lot of the South African producers such as Gold Fields and Harmony, because their profits will increase greatly for quite a small increase in the gold price,'' said Richard Davis, who helps manage the funds.

Merrill and some analysts expect the metal to rebound from the 4.8 percent decline since the early June peak, as supply falls and a weaker dollar spurs investors to look for a safe haven.

David Thurtell, who advises on commodities and currencies as an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, sees gold recovering from the recent decline to as much as $335 an ounce. Gold recently traded at $314.75.

ABN Amro Holding last Friday raised its forecast for the average gold price this year by 4 percent to $317.10 an ounce.

It raised its forecast for next year by 5 percent to $315 an ounce.

Gold has averaged $302.5 an ounce so far this year.

Other South African holdings in Merrill's funds
are AngloGold, the world's third-biggest gold miner; Western Areas Gold Mining, which controls one of the world's biggest gold deposits; and Durban Roodepoort Deep.

The funds also own London-listed Randgold Resources, which has a mine in Mali.

AurionGold, which is fighting a $950 million bid by Canada's Placer Dome, is among Merrill's holdings that have benefited from a series of takeovers.

Gold mining companies have spent more than $10 billion on mergers and acquisitions since last year to cut costs and acquire reserves to increase output.

Newmont Mining became the world's biggest producer in February after it won a takeover battle with AngloGold, spending almost $7 billion to buy Australia's Normandy Mining and Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining.

"We expect mergers and acquisitions to continue because some of the larger companies have to maintain their resource base and for that they'll have to buy small companies,'' Davis said.

"That's because the gold price is too low to warrant exploration budgets to look for new ounces.''

Gold is having its best year since 1987, having gained 13 percent so far, as New York's Dow Jones industrial average lost 12 percent and London's FTSE 100 index fell 17 percent. Tokyo's key Nikkei 225 stock average has gained 0.5 percent this year.

According to Bloomberg data, Merrill's top fund outperformed all rivals in its category barring the Sicav Placeuro Gold Mines fund managed by Sicav Placeuro Conseil, which has gained 91 percent in euro terms.

US-based Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund, which has returned 83 percent this year, is ranked third as at Wednesday.

Merrill's World Gold Fund increased 80 percent this year, and its two Japan-based funds, holding '22 billion (R1.9 billion), have returned as much as 64 percent this year.

The price of gold halved since 1980 as an eightfold rise in the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index helped convince investors that US securities offered better returns. This year the S&P has fallen 20 percent while the dollar lost 11 percent against the euro, encouraging investors to seek gold as a safer investment.

A stronger euro makes gold, which is sold in dollars, cheaper for European buyers. There was also a correlation between a stronger yen and higher gold prices, as a stronger Japanese currency made gold cheaper for Tokyo investors, Davis said. The dollar has lost more than 10 percent against the yen this year.

Violence in the Middle East, concern about terrorist attacks in the US after September 11 and accounting frauds at Enron and WorldCom have spurred the search for a haven.

Gold prices were also driven higher this year by mining companies buying back some of the 500 metric tons of metal they had sold in advance in 1999 to lock in prices as gold dropped to a 20-year low of $252 an ounce, Davis said.

Demand had increased as a result of the closing of forward sales by the companies, he said.

"It represents a major shift in the psychology of the mining industry,'' Davis said.

South Africa's physical gold production last year fell to its lowest level since 1954, curbing supplies of the metal.>>



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 9:39:16 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
SEVEN QUESTIONS

David Tice Thinks the Bad Stuff
Is Only Just Getting Underway

By IAN MCDONALD
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE

David Tice might not be the life of the party, but he's hardly a Yes Man either.

Unlike most fund managers who buy shares of stocks hoping to profit when their prices rise, in his $258 million Prudent Bear fund Mr. Tice sells stocks short, a tactic for profiting when a stock's price plummets. As you might imagine, the Dallas-based money manager has enjoyed the past few years.

The S&P 500 is averaging just a 2% annual gain over the past five years and a whopping 11% annual loss over the past three years. Mr. Tice's strategy led to four straight years of losses after the fund's launch at the end of 1995. But now the S&P 500 is back to 1995 levels and over the past three years Mr. Tice's fund averages a more than 30% annual gain.

He thinks the good times will keep going -- for him at least. Mr. Tice sees real-estate prices and stock prices as poised to tumble and stay down for years. If he's right, that's bad news for millions of buyers and holders of stocks and stock mutual funds. Why is he so glum? And what's wrong with the guarded optimism offered by the likes of Warren Buffett and Legg Mason's Bill Miller? We got some answers.

1. Walk us through the bear case today or how could things get worse from here?

We think we're probably in the third inning of this bear market. What people fail to understand is that we all learn from the recent past. We had a great time from 1982 to 1999 and now we've had a couple of down years and they think, "Well let's get back to partying again." But if you look over history, bear markets tend to be long, painful and ugly. Stocks go from undervalued to overvalued. We still have a stock market trading at 30 times trailing operating earnings.

We have economic problems as well. The economy had a bubble fueled by too much credit. When you have credit growth that's faster than GDP [gross domestic product] growth, you get either asset price inflation or goods and services inflation. If you have the latter, the Fed [or the Federal Reserve] raises rates and you have a recession. If you have the former, it embellishes itself and just keeps going. You create a negative savings rate, a consumption-oriented society with too much capital available. You screw up your economy for a long time. But asset prices keep going up and people borrow against that money. The Fed doesn't take the punch bowl away because everybody likes it when asset prices go up. Everybody thinks it's OK, but eventually it blows up.

All the truly great depressions have followed asset inflation, which is what we have today. But people are asleep at the switch. As Jeremy Grantham, [co-founder of investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. LLC], pointed out, we had a 17-year bear market starting in 1929. That was followed by a 20-year bull market, a 17-year bear market and then an 18-year bull market. But in a world of immediate gratification we want it to be over now even though we still have an expensive stock market and people still expecting earnings growth of around 30% and 40%. If you just realize that Alan Greenspan called this "irrational exuberance" with the Dow at 6300 in 1996, then you see we've got more excesses now than we had then. If we were overvalued then, we could fall to 3000 now. It's not that complicated, but people just don't want to believe it.

2. Is there a bubble we're all overlooking today?

Real estate, housing stocks and structured finance, which is asset-backed commercial [bonds]. Mortgage-backed securities are propping up today's housing prices. We've had 25% year-over-year inflation in home prices on Long Island and in the whole state of California, and that's an asset bubble financed by speculative credit. There's a lot of paper [or bonds] out there financing assets of questionable quality. Look at mortgage growth in this country and the jumbo mortgages that are out there. I wouldn't want my sister to own that stuff. The insurance provided for those mortgages is coming from companies without a great deal of capital.

Look at the fact that delinquencies at some lower tier [borrowers] is increasing. Fannie Mae is now refinancing apartment buildings when a few years ago they wouldn't do that for you unless you sold the building. Now when a property goes up in value, the owners refinance to take more money out [of the property]. That eliminates the need for them to sell and creates a cushion for [housing prices because there are] fewer sellers. But as prices go up, the risks are higher. A 25% increase in [housing] prices when incomes are growing at 4%? That just doesn't make sense. Housing stocks are dramatically overvalued as well and we think this cycle will turn.

3. Where are your biggest short positions?

They're still in telecom stocks. We're still seeing dramatic overvaluation in telecom stocks and the telecom software area. Also in semiconductors and in financials. The telecom area's high returns were the result of a one-time boom that might not ever be repeated. There are people saying 97% of telecom capacity out there is still unutilized. We built an infrastructure expecting to sell 700 million cell phones last year, but we sold 400 million.

We've had a spendthrift society that bought cell phones for 12-year-olds and housewives and people that, if incomes decline, won't keep using them. We have AT&T at about $10 and WorldCom at under a dollar. This is a different world. We're not seeing people shopping on the Net the way we thought they would given what we've seen with Amazon.com. We have maybe $775 trillion in bad telecom debt out there [sarcastic overstatement of real debt problem - ed.] so don't tell me how quickly telecom will come back. That doesn't recognize that this is the end of a bubble and these companies' customers won't be spending money for some time.

In financials, we're talking about sub-prime lenders, credit card lenders, brokerage firms and banks. We're not just talking about the lower tier borrowers being in trouble. There are a lot of yuppies making $100,000 that are in over their head with debt.

4. Seems we've come through a three-year stretch that was the best environment for short sellers in a long time. Is it harder to find short ideas than it was two years ago?

No. There's lots of good short ideas still. People think we've gone down for two and a half years now, so how much more is there to go? Well, look at the Nasdaq Composite chart from 1995 through 1999 and you can see how far these stocks went up. There are tons of companies still selling at five times sales.

Yes, telecom stocks have already been decimated, but we don't think they're buys yet. The semiconductor stocks are still very high.

5. Are you expecting more accounting scandals?

We expect more. We had a period where the most reckless managers, CFOs, auditors, brokerage firms, investment bankers and money managers made the most money. The environment was such where if you made your earnings estimate, the momentum investors wanted to buy your stock and they didn't care how you got to those numbers. Then [company] executives made more money from stock options [as stocks' prices rose].

So you had greater and greater incentives to promote the most reckless guys. The most reckless CEO hired the most reckless CFO. And you were an auditor and you had a problem with [a company's accounting], your office made less money, so you weren't in charge for long. And in money management, you got more money if you held the least ethical companies that looked hot. If you were a curmudegeoenly type, questioning [companies'] returns on capital or worrying about a recession and you were wrong a couple of times, you were passed over for a promotion or fired. So, you end up just having a whole corporate culture where more risk was taken and more numbers were stretched.

6. On the sunnier side, some investors are saying our current integrity issues will lead investors to companies with cleaner, leaner balance sheets along with more honest managers. And the likes of Warren Buffett and Bill Miller of Legg Mason are predicting lower, but positive returns of 7% or so for stocks in coming years. What's your response and when would you be bullish?

Maybe at the margin [investors will focus on cleaner companies]. But, there are a couple of different kinds of companies out there. First there are companies that are doing OK and they stretch things. They might not stretch as much because they're doing OK and they don't want it to look like they're hiding things. But if a company is going downhill really fast, they will lie about it and continue to lie about it.

As for predicting lower returns, there are two different ways to say [stocks are] overvalued. Either the soft way, which is to say lower returns over time. Or the hard way where you predict a dramatic decline followed by flat returns. I think a lot of times, not to be critical of these people, they don't want to have their name in headlines saying they think stocks can go down 40% to 50%. It's easier to say, "We'll be flat for a long time." Given that [stocks'] long-term rates of return are 10% [per year,] I've heard some people say they need to lower expectations to 1% or 2%. Saying 5% or 7% is OK. They're trying to make it sound more palatable. I just don't think that's constructive.

As for when I'd be bullish, it would take the S&P 500 trading at 10 times trailing earnings. That's far away. It's hard to say how we get there, but we're not anywhere close to being there yet.

7. Despite the past five years' volatility and sagging returns, millions of 401(k) investors are buying shares of stock mutual funds each month. Most would say that staying the course is the right thing to do in times like this. What would you say to them?

They need to invest some time in understanding and analyzing the bear case. They need to recognize that bear markets can last a long time. They need to recognize that the contrarian view is that the market might still be dramatically overvalued. They ought to preserve principal rather than be thinking about getting rich, I think ... I'm mostly short in my personal portfolio because I believe strongly in my bear thesis. I'd rather be in a money market fund than an S&P 500 index fund.

Write to Ian McDonald at ian.mcdonald@wsj.com

Updated July 11, 2002 5:43 p.m. EDT



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 10:13:38 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Growing scrutiny of Bush business record

Actions as private citizen include taking a company loan, late reporting of stock sale.

By Ron Scherer
The Christian Science Monitor
from the July 12, 2002 edition

NEW YORK – In June 1990, oil prices were bumping along at $17 a barrel and there was so much crude sloshing around that inventories hit an eight-year high.

As any Texan knew, it was not a good time to be in the oil and gas exploration business, but that's where George W. Bush had staked his future. He was a director and consultant to Harken Energy, a Dallas gasoline retailer and wildcatter struggling to stay afloat. Two months before the firm reported a big loss, Mr. Bush sold his shares, but it was 34 weeks – far longer than 31 days or less required by law – before regulators and other investors learned of the sale.


Now, even as the president puts new emphasis on corporate ethics, the administration itself is coming under close scrutiny. On Wednesday, Judicial Watch, a conservative group, sued Vice President Dick Cheney for what it claimed was past inflation of revenues by Halliburton, a company Mr. Cheney chaired from 1995 to 2000. Cheney and the company deny the charge. The White House insists there is nothing to the charge. Reporters are also now looking at Bush's own brush with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which apparently examined his Harken deals.

Bush, for his part, insists this ground has been covered, and nothing untoward found.

The media sleuthing comes only a few days after President Bush outlined a much tougher approach to wrong-doing by CEOs. The White House has shrugged off reports that show Bush himself engaged in some of the things for which he has castigated CEOs. For example, he took a company loan, a practice he is decrying. And he wants CEOs to disclose on a timely basis when they buy or sell their shares – which he did not do.

Private-citizen Bush had become an investor in Harken in the mid-1980s as his own oil company, Spectrum 7 Corp., was scraping along in debt. After investing $500,000 in Harken, Bush received $131,250 in stock options. By June of 1990, Bush had dumped most of his Harken stock, clearing $848,560. Just two months later, the firm reported a much larger loss than expected, and the stock dropped to $2 a share from where Bush sold it at $4.

After Harken's 1989 annual report came out in 1990, the SEC looked at it and saw a red flag. The firm had sold a subsidiary to its own management and booked it as a capital gain. "It's not an arms-length transaction when management is on both sides," says Chris Bebel, a former SEC attorney and federal prosecutor. "Related-party transactions are viewed with great suspicion," says Mr. Bebel, now at Shepherd, Smith & Bebel in Houston.

For Harken, this meant restating its earnings – similar to what WorldCom and Enron have had to do. Instead of reporting a loss of $4 million, the red ink swelled to several times that amount and the stock plunged. When he ran for governor of Texas, Bush was asked about the sale of the stock. Did he know in advance that the company was going to have a much larger loss? Was he trading on inside information? "I absolutely had no idea and would not have sold it had I known," he said during his 1994 campaign for governor.

If done today, such a sale would spark an SEC inquiry, prosecutors and attorneys say. "A large sale two to three months before very bad news ... will be looked at hard today by the SEC and the exchanges," says Christian Bartholomew, a former SEC senior trial counsel, now a litigator at Morgan Lewis in Miami.

When trying to decide if insider trading has occurred at a company, government attorneys look at what they call the "fact pattern." Are there memos that make passing reference to sensitive information that might lead a prosecutor to think a trader did more to find out what was in the memo? Was there a board meeting to discuss the information? What did the trader say to his or her broker?

"It's very much like a mosaic that you put together from small pieces of evidence from different sources," says Mr. Bartholomew. "There is very rarely a smoking gun. When there is, the cases are over very quickly."

To get this information, prosecutors go to all the sources, especially looking for discrepancies, says Tom Carlucci, a former assistant US attorney in San Francisco and now a white-collar crime specialist at Foley & Larnder. After all the interviews, the attorneys then go back to the person being investigated. "You confront them with the factual information you know – 'Look, these three people said you knew this. If you didn't, can you prove they are mistaken?' "

Shifting explanations

In Bush's case, he's changed his story about why he was so late in notifying the government about the sale of the Harken stock. In 1994, he said that the government had lost the information. More recently, he has said his lawyers had been late in making the filing.

The SEC apparently did look into Bush's stock sale, but the extent of the probe is unknown. The SEC's general counsel at the time was James Doty, who represented Bush in private practice. So far, the SEC has released only a few files relating to the investigation. "Inquiries into insider trading are kept secret," says Bartholomew.

But many attorneys in this field believe the event today would have resulted in a much more in-depth type of investigation. "It would have warranted serious review," says Kirby Behre, a former assistant US attorney, now with the Washington law firm Paul, Hastings. "Today is a different environment, a different level of inquiry."

csmonitor.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1887)7/11/2002 11:24:50 PM
From: T L Comiskey  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Viet Nam is not the problem...
Its Big Moneys.. wishes that stand in the way of Free Elections