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To: uu who wrote (25072)	7/11/2002 6:10:31 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

There were a number of occasions during the 70's when you could buy stocks at 5-year lows. Did no good. Anybody who did that got beaten by CDs. Also, during the 1929-32 bear, there were probably several occasions when 5-year lows were made. Anybody who bought the stocks at that time had to ride perhaps through another 30 or 40 percent loss. Statements like the one you quoted sound nice but in the absence of consideration to valuations, it doesn't make much sense. Sure instantwealth.com probably made a new 5-year low today and is off 96% from its highs, but that alone doesn't make it a buy. Overvaluation is overvaluation and needs to be corrected one way or the other. The process doesn't stop just because some milestone like new 5-year lows were hit. It has a life of its own. I think we'll see a 30% to 50% decline in the major indexes (S&P, Dow and NASDAQ) over the next few years. Sure there will be intermediate rallies here and there (for instance, a move from 1300 to 1550 on the Nasdaq here wouldn't surprise me). But the longer-term trend is down. The depressing part is that even after we hit the bottom, I think we will keep going up and down for several years. There is no easy way out of a secular bear.