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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael who wrote (3381)7/11/2002 8:43:16 PM
From: Jeff  Respond to of 30712
 
i think i remember you....didn't i tell you about GPXM at .18 cents.....it tripled you know.....<gg>

lets see here.....you have the pierce and sucker right...

A death blow is where the stochastics approach or pass the 50 mark from below and then reverse. Anti-venom is the reverse ? What exactly is the significance of this.

yes....but the best death blow's are hit almost exactly at the 50 line or below....

anti-venom is the stoch 50 bounce....stoch coming down from overbought 80 and stopping at or near that 50 line and turning back up.....it shows sellers have dried up and theres a strong up move coming.....on runs that go from oversold 20 to overbought 80 and right back down again to oversold 20 could be classified as just plain old pump and dump runs.....but those that hit that 50 line coming down and reverse back up are real runs most times and are seen during just about every bullish run you will see....the great bull market in 1999 to march 2000 came off a 50 bounce or anti-venom.....

you can see that right here on the weekly chart...look back in 99 on the slow and full stoch....they were "exact" hits....

stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[df][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G

knowing that....you could have held for huge gains into 2000....because these were weekly hits that last a good few months....and thats exactly what i did.....and as you can see....none since....but you can see d-blows the next few years and many runs from 20 to 80 to 20.....like i said....pump and dump runs....

What made you pick that period, and why do you think the symmetry is not just a random correlation. For instance you say its not correlated timewise, yet you also mentioned a rough timetable for this playing out, how did you arrive at that?

the timetable and whole retrace is from the 1929 to 1932 dow crash.....

sharelynx.net

why that.....because thats the only other big american market bubble and crash to compare it too.....and because everybody..and i mean everybody believes it can't happen again just like in the 1930's because its different this time....we are much more advanced now....we are smart enough now not to repeat past mistakes.....

guess what....history is repeating....we didn't learn by our past....

dow bubble top to bottom took 35 months....nasdaq has been retracing 27 months now......

on the nasdaq retrace theres still over 2 years to retrace to get near the 1995 bubble start area.....

this year in 6-months...the nasdaq retraced 14 months of the bubble.....

now this is where folks are lost....and the reason so few see this as valid pattern to follow even though its been working.....

you have to figure out the math part with the numbers i just mentioned above.....i did that....so thus i came on zeev's thread and told everybody at nasdaq 1800 where we were heading....they thought 2100 at the time....i said nope....1400 by june.....they attacked me....

i got the last laugh....oh well

i did the math...<gg>

I mean I am not challenging you on this, I would love to have a simple map that i could use for planning, However i am blessed(cursed) with an inquiring mind and would like to understand the basis for believing that this can be used as a predictive model.

like i always say....keep it simple.....when you over think things you lose focus....

if i sat here trying to think of all the reasons why following this simple pattern from history of retraces can't possible work....

i would have missed it all.....

bottom line....i saw it working...so i just went along for the ride....and i first saw it in dec 2000.....and just went with it.....

we are now at the tail end.....you already missed the first 27 months....and this might be the only bubble retrace in history you will ever get to follow in your lifetime....

this last part is the hardest to follow.....because its now at levels most thought not possible again and many will be devastated if it plays all the way down like it did in 1932.....back then....most who survived the first two years of 1930-31 thought they made it out alive....it was the end in 1932 that cleaned out many remaining survivors because they all believed it wouldn't and couldn't go to that extreme low.....but it did....

so here we are.....compared to 1930's....we are not even close to that extreme washout yet.....

so even if i wasn't using this to trade off.....just knowing the retrace history and what happened at the end of the 30's crash....well....me just knowing this could go to that extreme low will at least leave me a survivor when the bottom does hit.....and thats all that matters right now....and even if you still don't believe the retrace....at least you can keep it in your mind and know how bad things can get....and it at least might help make you a survivor also.....

always plan for the worst....a bull market won't wipe you out....

but the final phase of a bear market will.....

and we ain't in no bull market....



To: Michael who wrote (3381)7/11/2002 9:15:30 PM
From: ig  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 30712
 
I'm going to respond to some of these questions, because I am having a great month and feel like contributing and paying Jeff back for some of his terrific advice -- and besides, I want to test my knowledge.. :-)

"Pierce and sucker is where the market goes through a former support/resistnace point and then reverses quickly, thus suckering all the longs/shorts who played for the breakout/breakdown."

I think it applies only to piercings of lows, not highs. The "Pierce" is when price breaks a bit lower than a previous major low and quickly reverses, leading "suckers" to think that the trend has reversed and they all jump onboard for a ride to Da Moon. They think The Bottom has been set, but it's really just a Sucker Rally, richly suitable for shorting when it inevitably poops out far short of Da Moon. The current Sucker Rally is a fine example. (Nice job, Jeff.)

"A death blow is where the stochastics approach or pass the 50 mark from below and then reverse. Anti-venom is the reverse ? What exactly is the significance of this."

A DB is when stochastic approaches the 50 mark from below the 20 mark and then turns back. AV is the reverse, yes. The significance is that when stochastic shoots out from below 20, it is sometimes taken as a strong bullish signal, which, if it is a healthy signal, should easily fly thru the 50 mark. When it fails there instead and turns back, it is a sign that the move up from under the 20 is not as healthy as it might have seemed.

"What made you pick that period, and why do you think the symmetry is not just a random correlation. For instance you say its not correlated timewise, yet you also mentioned a rough timetable for this playing out, how did you arrive at that?"

That's right, it is not closely correlated time-wise, but it is very closely correlated Support-and-Resistance-wise. This means that prices have been consistently honoring the major S/R price levels and should continue to do so until the retrace is complete. We don't know exactly when prices will bounce off these S/R levels -- and that's why my cat makes better intraday calls than Jeff does! :-) -- but we do know the prices at which the turns will be made -- and that is why Jeff's call on the Big Picture is a thing of beauty.

No offense, Jeff -- just making sure you are awake.. :-)

Gratefully,

ig