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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (37575)	7/12/2002 4:14:53 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68400

Reversal of Fortune? By Richard A. Sparks (rsparks@sir-inc.com) 7/11/2002 5:27 PM ET Today's comeback for the major market averages is reminiscent of so many that have come before it. Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU – 8799.5) has risen more than 150 points off its 12.15 p.m. eastern time low of 8605.3. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 1369.5) has also made a quick reversal, moving more than 24 points higher from its intraday low of 1323.6. The COMP had not traded that low since May 8, 1997. The question now - is this the one? Is this the reversal day that finally puts in the big bottom everyone has been hoping for? On no less than seven occasions, the COMP has made a new 2002 low only to reverse and move higher. On January 23, February 8, February 22, May 8, June 14, June 26, and July 3, the COMP moved off intraday lows to move higher. These instances are noted with arrows on the chart below. Only on February 22 and May 8 did the COMP make an upward move of more than 10 percent. However, on every one these occasions the index moved lower. Charts of the INDU and the SPX show the same sort of reversal patterns that simply could not keep up the momentum. Even as I write this, the major equity indices are beginning to move lower from their intraday high made just after 2:00 p.m. eastern time. With sentiment only beginning to turn negative and everyone and their brother saying this must be it, I will be surprised if this is the day. There are a number of criteria that would need to be in place for a lasting bottom to occur. However, it's least likely that we'll find a bottom when everyone is searching so hard for it. - Richard A. Sparks (rsparks@sir-inc.com)