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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (93800)	7/11/2002 9:42:12 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Ebbers may have to shed some of his assets - a 160,000-acre ranch in Canada, a wide swathe of timberland in the southeastern United States and a yacht named Aquasitions Bernie Ebbers Originated: 26 October 2000 Position: President and chief executive of MCI WorldCom Born: 1941 Career @ a glance Education: Victoria Composite High School, Edmonton, Canada. Degree in Physical Education from Mississippi College, which he attended on a basketball scholarship First job: Drove a milk delivery truck and worked as a bouncer to support himself through high school Moving on up: In 1983, Ebbers set up a company called Long Distance Discount Service. The company bought up long distance telephone call time to sell to local companies. It grew rapidly through an aggressive acquisitions policy (taking over 40 smaller companies). In 1995 the company was renamed WorldCom. Milestones: In 1998, Ebbers engineered one of the largest corporate mergers in history with the $37 billion dollar purchase of MCI Communications, a company three times the size of WorldCom. He outbid British Telecom in the process. The new company was named MCI WorldCom. Millstones: Ebbers' policy of aggressive acquisition has since been called a mistake and a failure. His most ambitious plan to buy telecom rival Sprint was killed off by regulators, and Worldcom's exaggerated growth proved unsustainable. A warning in November 2000 that earnings would be far lower than expected prompted a 20% fall in its shares and a break up of its operating divisions - not unlike long-distance giant AT&T. Management style: Ebbers has a close 'inner circle' that he drinks and plays pool with. An early job as a basketball coach seems to have left its mark - he conducts meetings in the manner of a coach calling to his players from the bench. He also believes that the key to successful acquisition is avoiding micromanagement. Ebbers dislikes staff squandering money, encouraging them to fly economy and take cabs instead of more expensive limousines. Defining anecdote: Ebbers' famous charisma and eccentricity is summed up in his dress sense - at one Manhattan investor conference, full of traditional city suits, Ebbers made his entrance in a bright orange blazer. Extra-curricular: Ebbers lives in Mississippi with his second wife and two children. He also owns a $67m, 164,000 acre ranch in Canada. What admirers say: 'Bernie built this thing from the ground up. As a result he's built a tremendous amount of goodwill, and he's made a lot of people a lot of money. When you've done that, people may be a little more patient when you have difficulty over a short period of time.' (Stephen Shook, telecom analyst at Wachovia Securities in Tele.com, September 2000) 'One of the two most formidable deal makers in telecoms' (The Economist, 4 November 2000) What critics say: 'He started with no expectations and won big. While AT&T is perceived as having a problem because the company is losing market share, Bernie is not yet seen as having a problem, although I do think he probably should be'. (Christine Heckart of TeleChoice Inc in Tele.com, September 2000) In their own words: 'People that have problems admitting what they don't know are people who get in a world of trouble. I'm not an engineer by training; I'm not an accountant by training. My job is to bring in people who do have those specific skills and then rely on them. I'm the coach. I'm not the point guard who shoots the ball.' (The New York Times, 27 April 1998) Admitting to investors that WorldCom's acquisition binge had ended in failure: 'We recognise that we, as a company, have let you down. I have let myself down. We certainly don't look at this as the best day of our life... I'm sure with the recent performance of this stock, people have a legitimate right to ask if I have a right to lead this company'. (Financial Times, November 2, 2000)

To: puborectalis who wrote (93800)	7/12/2002 1:46:40 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 99280

The Worden Report (Thursday, July 11, 2002) All the Manure in the Heap On an intra-day basis, the SP-500 slipped below the September low last week. It wasn't until yesterday that it did so on a closing basis. Today, the intra-day low was a hair above 900. But, of course, it was up at the close, so yesterday's close stands as the low close of the decline and today's low stands as the low. Don't ask me which is the most important – the intra-day low or the low close. The market doesn't do anything in a precise way. Which is the crux of what I have to say. Important bottoms are better when there has been a marginal penetration of a so-called “support level” – like the benchmark bottom set last September. Why? Because so-called “support levels” defined by previous swing lows act as magnets. They in fact offer no support. A more effective support level will usually be a previous swing high or a trendline. (The two often coincide.) Even they have no relevance if they're very old. But the widely watched previous swing lows act as magnets, pulling the market down into their traps. It is when the last “support level” of this type has been violated that the market can muster the strength to make a bottom. To put it another way, when there are not more magnets pulling it down, the market can devote its energy to going up. There are no significant bottoms (or tops either) to be found now that the dirty deed (violation) has been consummated. Many will disagree with this, because they invoke minor and intermediate bottoms that occurred years ago. But technical analysis is above all an attempt to assess supply versus demand. Little benchmarks of supply versus demand that lie years behind us have long ago dissipated the specific imbalances in bulls and bears that existed at that time. They are irrelevant. But you could ask: do these “expired support levels” have psychological significance? Maybe in truth the bottom in late 1998 is irrelevant. But what about the perception? My answer is that perceptions relating to past “support levels” are held only by technicians (some technicians, that is). Technicians represent a small minority of the people buying and selling stock. Significant imbalances in supply and demand run much deeper than the trading of technicians themselves. Technicians aren't the force behind the trends. Technicians are merely eavesdroppers (a term I coined 42 years ago in this context). We watch the market machinations of the public through their 401 Ks and the institutions in their various roles and schemes. We observe the manifested results of many diverse reasons for buying or selling. We try to estimate who have the strong hands and who have the weak hands – the buyers or the sellers. We don't care that much about what other technicians think. They don't represent much more than a couple of pieces of manure in the compost heap. We are interested in all the manure and scrap in the heap. What I am saying is that the SP-500 is ripe for a bottom. We may even be there. It's in a perfect position, although there is still a bit of latitude on the downside if needed. The VIX is flying. It may or may not match the level of last September when the bottom is reached. It is in a bullish configuration, as bullish as need be. Breadth reveals an incredibly oversold market. Volume today on the NYSE was over two billion shares. Further, that positive TSV divergence has held up. Further, all you hear and all you read is pure hysterical nonsense. If this is not the final bottom, I think the real McCoy is close. One element missing: the Dow has not yet tested the September low. We could be in for a whopper of a day on the downside. If today is not the real bottom, it could come tomorrow or Monday or Tuesday – and it will seem just as implausible and inscrutable as it does right now. –DW