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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (34210)	7/12/2002 1:31:24 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Saddam will attack Israel with chemical warheads and the IAF will counter attack, Arik Sharon having politely informed GW Bush that he had better not withold the friend or foe codes as his father did in the Gulf War, because Israel is going in regardless. I regard this scenario as a near certainty and will be surprised if anything different happens. Excellent comment, Nadine. I have not seen anyone bring up this point, and you have it figured out in depth. I was a little surprised at the info we are getting about Jordan involvement. The King of Jordan is really laying his head on the line, especially when you realize that Israel is probably going to be going in full blast with us. The domestic political question is, can the Demos figure out a way to oppose this invasion between now and it's commencement? They obviously don't want to go, but feel that they can oppose it politically. It will be interesting to watch this play out.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (34210)	7/12/2002 5:16:35 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Bernard Lewis thinks the citizens of Baghdad would rejoice at our coming even more than the citizens of Kabul did. That doesn't mean that they wouldn't rejoice even more at our subsequent departure. Yes, most Iraqis probably hate Saddam. That does not mean that they love us. Repeat the mantra, the lesson of Osama: the enemy of my enemy is not always my friend. Saddam will attack Israel with chemical warheads Perhaps, if he actually has the capacity to do so, which remains very much in doubt. Developing a chemical weapon is a whole lot simpler than effectively delivering that weapon. the IAF will counter attack, Arik Sharon having politely informed GW Bush that he had better not withold the friend or foe codes as his father did in the Gulf War, because Israel is going in regardless. If Arik Sharon pulls any bullshit of that nature, I hope GW Bush has the balls to look him in the eye and tell him that if he does any such thing he will have to send in a vacuum cleaner brigade to collect what's left of the IAF from the Iraqi desert, and that his next air force will have to fly in paper airplanes, because we're not going to pay the bill for anything more. Iraq is a much, much greater threat to Israel than it is to the US. If we use our boys and our money to do their dirty work for them (not even mentioning our general underwriting of their entire defence program), the least they can do is not pull the rug out from under us in the process. Any IAF gesture would be beyond redundant in any event, given the volume of air power that the US would deploy to support an invasion.