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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37581)	7/12/2002 4:12:55 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68419

Sector Siesta – Spotlight on Retail By Andy Stout (astout@sir-inc.com) 7/11/2002 1:50 PM ET The S&P Retail Index (RLX) is down roughly 1.39 percent, despite Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: sentiment, chart, options) raising full-year earnings estimates on higher sales and U.S. retail sales probably rising in June by 0.7 percent (0.7 percent is the consensus estimate), according to a Bloomberg survey. The RLX fell to lows not seen since early November 2001. As this sector falls, the composite put/call open interest ratio has also been dropping. This means investors are trying to pick the bottom and believe that the sector will rally from here. Another signal that investors are optimistic towards the retail sector is the fact the short interest in this sector is at its lowest level since January. The optimism in this sector is very obvious. It does not make much sense to be optimistic given the horrible technicals that this index has displayed and the uncertainties of today's economy. This optimism means that the selling pressure exerted on the RLX has not subsided and no capitulation has occurred. We need these things if this sector, or any sector for that matter, is going to be able to sustain a rally. The RLX may get a short-term rally tomorrow if the June retail sales come out better than expected. If it does rally, it won't last too long.