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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37583)	7/12/2002 4:16:45 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68426

A Trickle Becomes a Flood By Ron Taylor 7/11/2002 1:02 PM ET You are starting to see what happens when the mutual fund redemption trickle becomes a flood. People are receiving their statements for a quarter when the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 909.98) lost 10.5 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 1342.5) lost 15.5 percent. Obviously, some mutual funds performed even worse. When you tack on an additional 10 percent to the 27 percent SPX funds lost prior to last quarter, individual investors are about at the breaking point. When you lose a third of your retirement fund, and for some much, much more, natural instinct is to stop the pain. Stop the bleeding. This is going on in investors minds nationwide. Just like when greed took over in the last half of the 90s, fear is taking over now. As evidence I cite yesterday's 15-percent jump in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX – 40.43). The problem with fear is sometimes it turns into sheer panic, and that is when you see what is euphemistically called a market correction. There are simply no buyers, the buyers are replaced by a tidal wave of sellers as people collectively yell into the phone "get me out!" I think yesterday's action was indicative of the beginning of this process. One thing that stood out plainly to me was that the Dow Industrials (INDU – 8672.3) lost 3.12 percent versus the COMP, which lost 2.34 percent. To me this clearly indicates that people are starting to sell out of the "blue chips". When fear grips investors there are no safe havens. Also notable, the Utility stocks as measured by the Dow Jones Utility Average (UTIL – 244.44) finished at a new 52-week low yesterday. This is more evidence of the same theme. The S&P 400 Midcap (MID – 438.04) and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT – 409.93) are both cascading lower. Completely debunking the theory that there is a stealth bull market going on, and that "most" stocks are going up. Both of which have been popular fairy tales that the media has been feeding investors to keep them in the game. The following charts show that that the analysts and the media were merely leading the lambs to slaughter. Good luck out there, it's going to get bumpy.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37583)	7/12/2002 9:40:29 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 68426

From Briefing.com: 8:56AM S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. The pre-market tone remains positive. From Briefing.com: Relative strength on the Nasdaq can be attributed in part to DELL's upwardly revised guidance last night. The company now sees second quarter earnings of $0.19 per share, which compares favorably with the Multex consensus estimate for earnings of $0.18 per share. On the heels of its guidance, Lehman is out with an upgrade on the shares this morning. The firm has raised DELL to Buy from Market Perform with a target price of $30. 8:27AM Bears Stearns on stocks that could work without an upturn : Andy Neff at Bear Stearns says that investors should focus on computer hardware stocks that do not need an economic upturn to work, as guidance for Q3/2H02 is likely to be cautious; names DELL (continues to move into new mkts with its advantaged model), BRCD (benefiting from corporate interest in SANs as a means to reduce costs), IBM (new CEO making the right moves to position co for upturn), and ADPT (play on emerging iSCSI technology, despite weak near-term biz). 7:56AM Powerwave cut to L-T Buy at JPM -- rev visibility (PWAV) 7.60: JP Morgan downgrades to L-T BUY from Buy following earnings report. Firm cites declining revenue visibility. Resets price target to $9. 7:46AM Advanced Micro downgraded at CSFB (AMD) 9.33: CSFB downgrades to HOLD from Buy based on the belief that profitability of the Flash group is unlikely near-term; believes AMD is shifting its near-term strategy towards pursuing mkt-share at the expense of profitability, and is experiencing problems with MirrorBit that can lead to long-term profitability issues and loss of competitive advantage. Changes FY02 rev/EPS ests to $3.1 bln/($1.17) from $3.0 bln/($1.14) and FY03 to $3.9 bln/($0.53) from $3.5 bln/($0.31), and cuts price target to $10 from $12. 7:38AM Dell Computer upgraded at Lehman (DELL) 23.93: Lehman upgrades to BUY from Mkt Perform after the co guided higher last night (see 5:06 comment); upgrade is based on bottoming IT demand in Q3 and a pickup in 2003, which should drive better margins, EPS, and multiple expansion as DELL gains share. Price target is $30. 6:41AM FEI Company agrees to be acquired by Veeco (FEIC) 22.06: Enters agreement to be acquired by Veeco Instruments (VECO 22.49) for approx. $1 bln in stock. The exchange ratio for the deal is 1.355-to-1, which based on VECO's closing price values FEIC at approx. $30.47 per share. VECO expects the deal to be accretive to 2003 results on a pro forma basis. Each company expects to meet guidance provided for Q2. finance.yahoo.com It sure seems like every upturn has turned into a sell off lately to me. Thanks for all your posts Harry! RtS