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To: Gottfried who wrote (1143)	7/12/2002 8:22:08 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 13403

Hey G. when do you sleep? OT - Just slightly more absurd than this: Minimum downside target on the S&P is 560. Got gold? 321gold.com THE GREAT CRASH OF 2002 Every cloud has a GOLD lining! by Clive Maund - posted July 9, 2002 Clive Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from the Society of Technical Analysts, Cambridge and living in southern Bavaria, Germany where he trades US markets. There has been a lot of talk over the past year or two about "the bear market," how long it's run and the damage it's caused etc. Well, if you think what we've seen to date is a bear market, I've got news for you:- it's BEARly begun - you ain't seen nothin' yet! Take a look at the long term 10-year S&P500 chart below and you will see that this index is just completing a massive 5-year long "Head-and-Shoulders" top. This is a large, clear formation which has major implications. The rule with these patterns is that the fall which follows a break of the neckline, shown as the almost horizontal line on the chart, will at least equal in extent the preceding decline from the absolute top to the neckline, as measured on a log. scale chart. Many commentators have remarked that we have had no panic so far in this bear market, failing to grasp that the reason for this is that WE ARE STILL IN THE TOP AREA. By far the worst is yet to come. I state now, without exaggeration, that I firmly believe that we are now about to witness, within the next few months, possibly within the next few weeks, the MOST DRAMATIC STOCK MARKET CRASH IN HISTORY, which will make the crash of '29 look like a Sunday School outing. THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL - it's as clear as that NASDAQ board in Times Square (and what a warning that was!). A clear break of the neckline of the Head-and-Shoulders formation on the S&P500 will probably, as often happens, be followed by a brief but deceptive pullback towards the neckline. After that a vertical all-out crash to the 560 area is to be expected. This will be a straight down vertical plunge - the market will go down like an elevator with its wire cut.

To: Gottfried who wrote (1143)	7/12/2002 1:43:46 PM
From: kdavy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13403

Gottfried, Cary, mike, sam, RTS and threaders: update I last posted on June 7. Since then I celebrated my 50th birthday, had a great party with more then 150 friends, visited Washington DC (Silk Road festival on the Mall) visited friends and relatives in North Carolina. Just enjoying life. I holding on to Mxim, lltc, Amat and Nvls. Sold orcl @9.70. Right now I am 103% invested (little bit margin). I will be away for three more weeks traveling to India. Today I wrote covered calls for mxim Aug 45, lltc aug 35, amat aug 22.5 and nvls aug 35. I will not be trading until after this trip. My portfolio is about 18% down for the year. good luck to you all and see you after second week of August. kdavy