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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (15629)	7/12/2002 10:28:46 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Wayne. Lu not on my list. Don't follow it. Anything I would do here would be for a trade only. LU in my opinion over the long haul probably will not survive. I may take some profits today, already. I'm long EBAY, BRCM, VTSS, TRKN, REMC, ZRAN, ADCT, OAKT. VTSS is the one I think could do the best for me. ZRAN is my best at present, caught a falling knife at the bottom. Missed CIEN, regrettfully, an LU type that I'm high on. I think GW's speech backfired and really helped the big sell-off yesterday. An obvious fox in the henhouse situation and folks are getting real cynical. Any negative news now drives, but that should taper off here I think. As you can see with all the volatility the whole she bang is very unpredictable here. Still looks to me like it holds about here, especially tech, and we have a little rally. Maybe we get another retest first, or a good spurt and a retest. Tech comps this qtr from what I can see are going to surprise and we're already seeing signs of that. But maybe the market is looking well beyond that, already. I'm just playing for some extra coin here. I want the damn gold indices to come down a bunch, so I can accumulate again. But they don't want seem to want to do that. This situation just takes patience, patience and more patience. iso's gassers slowly coming down as well.

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (15629)	7/12/2002 10:51:57 AM
From: Jon Cave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

I picked LU over NT because of its balance sheet. LU has around 3 billion in long term debt that doesn't start coming due until 2006 or 2007. LU has about 5 billion in cash and around 800 million in short term debt. LU will be around at least until 2006 or 2007. LU was one of the first companies to get into trouble in the telecom sector a good two years ahead of the tech burst. This may be a small advantage for them as they started cleaning house early. NT is the one that might not survive. Too much short term debt. I haven't decided if that would be an advantage for LU if NT went under. Also, the baby bells are probably in a stronger position now than they were a few years ago when all the newcomers were supposedly going to put them out of business. Also, you get Bell Labs. That has got to be worth something. I loved the stock when it was below $1.50 putting a market cap of about 4 billion on the company. This thing could easily drop back below $1.50 again, but I hope we have seen the bottom. Go to yahoo and look at the financials and especially the balance sheet. The two most important things to look at is the cash and short term investments and the debt on the balance sheet.